ArmInfo. The national debt of Armenia, having increased by 8.4% in January-July 2020 (against growth by 0.9% a year earlier), exceeded the level of $ 7.9 billion (3.9 trillion AMD).
According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, in January-July 2020, the growth of external debt looked too modest - by 4.7% against the background of the rise of internal debt by 22.6%, while a year earlier there was a multidirectional dynamics - a decline in external debt by 2.2% was accompanied by growth of internal one by 13%. As a result, by August 2020, the external debt exceeded the $ 6 billion mark (2.9 trillion drams), while the domestic one reached $ 1.9 billion (914.2 billion drams).
In July alone, the growth of Armenia's public debt accelerated to 3% from the June stagnation of 0.1%, which is due to the reversal of the dynamics of external debt from 0.2% decline to 1.2% growth with a tangible acceleration in the growth of domestic debt from 1.1 % up to 8.5%.
In y-o-y terms (in July 2020 versus July 2019), the national debt of Armenia sharply accelerated growth from 3.3% to 14%. This was triggered by the reversal of the y-o-y dynamics of external debt from 0.8% decline towards 12% growth, and an imperceptible slowdown in the growth of domestic debt from 20.6% to 20%.
In the structure of external debt, the share of the government in January-July 2020 increased from 91.6% to 92.1% (against 90.5% a year earlier), while the share of the Central Bank fell from 8.4% to 7.9% (against 9, 5% a year earlier), amounting to $ 5.6 billion and $ 478.6 million in absolute terms, respectively. In January-July of this year external debt of the Government increased by 5.3%, and the Central Bank decreased by 2.2%, while a year earlier in the same period in both cases, a decline was recorded - by 1.7% and 6.7%, respectively. The y-o-y dynamics (July 2020 to July 2019) of the external debt of the Government and the Central Bank also turned out to be multidirectional: the government external debt increased by 13.8% with the Central Bank's decline by 6.8%, repeating the trend of a year ago, when the 0.4% growth of government debt was accompanied by an 11% decline in Central Bank debt. In the structure of domestic government debt, government bonds dominate - in January-July 2020, the share increased from 91.9% to 92.5% ($ 1.7 billion or 845.3 billion drams), with a y-o-y growth of 21.4% in absolute value. Then the Armenian Eurobonds follow - $ 142 million or 68.9 billion drams, the share of which decreased in January-July from 8.1% to 7.5%, with a y-o-y decline in absolute value by 27.1%. And the portfolio of domestic guarantees has been reset to zero since August 2019, but in July of the same year they accounted for 0.6% or $ 9 million. In January-July 2020 alone, domestic debt on government bonds increased by 23.3% (against 16.7% growth a year earlier), and for Eurobonds - by 14.5% (against 12.8% growth a year earlier). A year earlier, in July 2019, the share of government bonds in the structure of domestic government debt accounted for 87%, with a y-o-y increase in absolute value by 19.1%, followed by Eurobonds - 12.4%, with a y-o-y increase in absolute value by 34.5%, and the share guarantees was 0.6%, with no y-o-y change.
To note, the World Bank already in its April forecast worsened expectations for the ratio of Armenia's public debt to GDP for 2020 towards growth to 57.2% (from the actual 53.5% in 2019), against the previously expected decline. But the WB cited this forecast, taking into account the expected slowdown in GDP growth in Armenia in 2020, to 1.7%. However, on June 8, the World Bank updated its forecast for the global economic outlook amid the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, worsening expectations for Armenia's GDP towards a 2.8% decline in 2020. Meanwhile, the IMF, in its June forecast of the prospects for the development of the global economy in the context of COVID-19, predicted for emerging market and developing countries in 2020 the public debt on average at 63% of GDP with a growth trend of 10 percentage points compared to 2019. To recall, as of January 1, 2020, the total national debt of Armenia amounted to 3.5 trillion drams or $ 7.3 billion, in the structure of which the external debt is 2.8 trillion drams or $ 5.8 billion, and the internal debt is 737.2 billion drams or $ 1.5 billion. The national debt of Armenia increased by 5,8% in 2019, due to the growth of external debt by 4.6% with an increase in domestic debt by 10.7%.
