Tuesday, September 8 2020 13:37
David Stepanyan

Forecast: Armenia will soon face tough competition with Azerbaijan  and Turkmenistan

Forecast: Armenia will soon face tough competition with Azerbaijan  and Turkmenistan

ArmInfo.The emergence and strengthening of the Azerbaijani state-owned company Azerenergy on the Iranian electricity market is fraught with certain risks for Armenia. The President of the Institute for Energy Security, Doctor  of Political Sciences Vahe Davtyan expressed a similar opinion to  ArmInfo.

"Let's start with the fact that Iran traditionally acts and will act  as a strategic direction for the export of electricity from Armenia.  In this light, the appearance of Azerenergy there, of course, will  create serious competition with the electricity imported from  Armenia, "he noted.

According to the expert, Azerbaijani activity has become noticeable  in the Iranian electricity market, starting with the signing in the  fall of 2018 of an agreement to increase the supply of electricity  from Azerbaijan to Iran. Davtyan considers this very interesting and  noteworthy, given that in the post-Soviet period Azerbaijan was never  considered as a country exporting electricity.

Moreover, according to his estimates, Azerbaijan did not even have a  stable internal electric power system.  The evidence of this was the  large-scale accident in the summer of 2018. Nevertheless, Baku  perceived the situation as a challenge, announcing its intention to  form new electric power capacities of 1000 MW in the country in the  coming years. Davtyan noted that progress and certain steps in this  direction are indeed being taken.  The expert considers Turkmenistan  to be another challenge for Armenia in the Iranian market. According  to his estimates, this country was able to ensure a fairly low cost  of electricity produced, which allows maintaining the competitiveness  of exported volumes. In this light, Davtyan predicts very tough  competition for Armenia with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan in the near  future.

At the same time, Davtyan considers the prospect of competition with  Azerbaijan through a communication prism. In his words, although at a  rather slow pace, the work on the construction of the third  high-voltage power transmission line Iran-Armenia is moving forward.  This project, according to his estimates, goes beyond the bilateral  format and is part of the North-South electricity corridor. The  latter is intended to synchronize the power systems of Iran, Armenia,  Georgia and Russia.

"And in this situation, we are already observing Baku's attempts to  propose the formation of an alternative corridor along its territory.  Moreover, there is already a project for the creation of an  Iran-Azerbaijan- Russia electricity corridor. And if it is  implemented, the Armenian corridor may well lose the geopolitical  significance initially attributed to it, "the expert concluded.


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