ArmInfo.The Central Bank has downgraded its forecast for the decline in Armenia's GDP in 2020 - to 6.2% from the previous 4%. Chairman of the Central Bank of the RA Martin Galstyan stated this on September 15 during a press conference.
He explained that such a forecast is mainly due to a decrease in private consumption by 9.4% (against the previously expected decline of 6.3%). In the updated forecast, the Central Bank also worsened expectations towards a larger decline in 2020 in the construction sector - to 18.7% (from the previous 11.2%), in the service sector - to 6.1% (from the previous 4.3%), in the agricultural sector - up to 1.1% (from the previous 0.4%), as well as tax collections - up to 12.1% (from the previous 5.4%).
M. Galstyan said that in 2020 the industrial sector will also be in decline - by 2%, against the previously forecast minus 2.2%.
At the same time, according to the baseline scenario, the Central Bank expects a reduction in private investment by 20% (against the previously predicted 14.7% decline).
M. Galstyan noted that in 2021 the rates of economic growth recovery will be lower than forecasted. In particular, he stressed that, according to the baseline scenario, the Central Bank expects economic growth by 4.9% in 2021 (against the previously forecast 5.5%). In view of the continuing uncertainty, the head of the Central Bank found it difficult to name a time frame, but stressed that a recovery in growth will be observed in all areas. As an example, M. Galstyan noted that in 2021 the service sector will grow by 4.2%, the construction sector - by 9%, the agricultural sector - by 3.2% growth, the industrial sector - by 5% growth.
To note, according to the World Bank's updated at the beginning of June this year forecast for 2020, a decline in GDP is expected in Armenia by 2.8%. In its April forecast, the IMF expected a 1.5% decline in Armenia's GDP in 2020 (there is no updated version yet), but the IMF's deteriorated estimates of the global economy and Russia's GDP decline in June would deepen the negative forecast for Armenia's GDP.
