ArmInfo. In August 2020, the real effective exchange rate of the dram to the basket of currencies of the states - the main trading partners of Armenia decreased by 0.6%, and the nominal effective exchange rate - by 0.3%, thereby fixing a slight weakening of the national currency.
As evidenced by the summary of derivative indicators of the exchange rate dynamics published by the RA Central Bank, at the end of August 2020, the indices of the real and nominal effective rates (1997 = 100) were 145.74 and 317.20, respectively. But the annual (August 2020 to August 2019) growth of these indices - real by 2.4% and nominal by 4.2% - meant the strengthening of the national currency. This is evidenced by the eight-month dynamics (January- August 2020) of these indices with the corresponding growth of the real and nominal effective exchange rates by 1.4% and 5%. Moreover, in the first 5 months (January-May) the growth of indices of real and nominal effective exchange rates was recorded by 7.4% and 6.3%, after which in June-August their decline was observed by 5.6% and 1.2%. Note that in the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia, by the end of August 2020, the AMD exchange rate against the dollar was 487.5 AMD / $ 1, against the euro - 581 AMD / 1 euro, against the Swiss franc 540 AMD / 1 franc, and against the Russian ruble - 6.6 dr / 1 ruble. In annual and eight-month terms, the dram depreciated against the dollar by 2.4-1.7%, against the euro - by 10.5-9.4%, against the Swiss franc - by 12.5-11.1%, while strengthening against the ruble by 8.3-14.3%. And by the end of September 2020, the AMD exchange rate against the dollar was 488.5 AMD / $ 1, against the euro - 572 AMD / 1 euro, against the Swiss franc 528 AMD / 1 franc, and against the Russian ruble - 6.2 AMD / 1 ruble, with annual and nine-month devaluation against the dollar by 2.7-1.9%, against the euro - by 10-7.7%, against the Swiss franc - by 10.5-8.6%, while strengthening against the ruble by 16.2-19.5% ... In October, the dram continued to weaken against these currencies, and even devaluation sentiment against the ruble was outlined. It should be reminded that the monthly summary of the Central Bank of Armenia of the derived indicators of the exchange rate dynamics represents the real and nominal effective exchange rates of the dram against the basket of currencies of 12 states - the main trade partners of Armenia. In calculations, since January 2018, the data on the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) have been revised, in particular, the rate of the Iranian rial began to be indicated according to the foreign exchange market data (instead of the previously used official rates of the Central Bank of Iran), and in the calculations of the consumer price index (CPI), data from the statistical service of the IRI were used ... The nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) is an exchange rate index calculated as the ratio between the national currency and the currencies of the main trading partners, weighted in accordance with their share in the foreign exchange transactions of the given state. And the real effective exchange rate (REER) is the ratio between the national currency and the currencies of other countries, weighted in accordance with the specific weight of foreign exchange transactions of a given country in foreign trade, adjusted for the price level. The growth of these indices means the strengthening of the exchange rate, while the decline means devaluation. An increase in the real effective exchange rate of the national currency leads to a deterioration in the competitive position: exports become more expensive and imports are cheaper. According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, in the consumer market in August 2020 deflation was recorded at 0.1%, with annual inflation at 1.8%, and in January-August of this year. deflation was 1.2%. Moreover, in August, the decline in prices was provoked exclusively by the reduction in prices for food products, on an annualized basis, the rise in prices came to a greater extent from the food group and slightly less from tariffs for services, and in January-August, the decline in prices was dictated by food and non-food products. In September 2020, the deflationary environment remained: 0.2% over the month (with annual inflation of 1.4%), over 9 months - 1.4%, and this was mainly provoked by changes in food prices. The monthly dynamics of foreign trade turnover showed a subsidence from the February double-digit growth (17%) to the same decline in March-April (16.8%), after which in May it was possible to partially restore the previous growth (14.6%) and maintain it in June (14.9%), however, in July, the uptrend slowed down strongly (to 3.3%) with weak signs and will accelerate in August (to 5.8%). The annual trend of foreign trade turnover in all months, with the exception of January, turned out to be downward, with a double-digit decline in March (13.3%), April (27.8%), May (16.2%) and July (13.6%). ). The main buyers of Armenian goods in January-August 2020 are Russia - 24.8% in exports, Switzerland - 22.4%, China - 9.5%. Moreover, Russia and China are also the main suppliers of imported products to Armenia - 33.6% and 14.4%, respectively, and Iran is in third place - 7.1%. In the structure of Armenia's foreign trade turnover, Russia accounted for 30.4%, China - 12.7%, Switzerland - 8.2%, Iran - 5.8%. Of these, only Iran kept both exports and imports in growth, while Switzerland and China, having increased their exports in double digits, reduced imports, and Russia, while maintaining imports in growth, reduced exports in double digits. As a result, Armenia's foreign trade turnover with these countries was in growth in the direction of Switzerland and Iran, and with Russia and China went into recession.