ArmInfo. The Ministry of Finance of Armenia believes that economic recovery in the republic can be expected as early as next year. RA Minister of Finance Atom Janjughazyan stated this on November 2, presenting the draft budget of the RA for 2021. In this vein, he noted that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is of the same opinion. As the minister noted, the IMF expects a late recovery of economic growth in Armenia in 2021, the rates of which will be rather low. "Consequently, the GDP growth for 2021, according to IMF experts, will be lower than the projected indicators," Janjughazyan said.
He recalled that since the beginning of 2020, expectations in terms of economic growth have been very positive, which was based on the indicators with which it was possible to end 2019. However, in March, with the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, the situation changed dramatically and the economy began to decline. The deepest decline, he said, was recorded in April this year, which was caused by a significant decline in the service sector.
According to the draft budget, the Minister of Finance noted that the economic recession in Armenia by the end of the current year will be 6%, with the restoration of growth in 2021 to 4.8%. "Obviously, these indicators differ from the law initiated by the government and adopted in October by the National Assembly, according to which the negative forecast was revised towards deepening - up to 6.8%, which as a result may affect the revision of indicators for 2021," he said.
Speaking about the absolute value of GDP, the minister recalled that the state budget at the end of 2019 provided that the nominal GDP of Armenia would be 7.095 trillion drams, which in April was revised to6.485 trillion. According to medium-term spending programs, GDP will be 6.505 trillion drams, however, according to the October revision, it will decrease to 6.170 trillion drams. Meanwhile, according to the draft budget for 2021, it is expected that Armenia will end 2020 with a nominal GDP of 6.240 trillion drams.
The draft 2021 budget expects that next year the nominal GDP of the Republic of Armenia will amount to 6.720 trillion drams, which is inferior to the indicators laid down in the medium-term expenditure program (7.143 trillion drams).
At the same time, Janjughazyan noted that according to the working estimates of the Ministry of Finance, Armenia's GDP in 2020 will amount to 6.170 trillion drams, next year Armenia will end with an indicator of 6 598 trillion drams. <Thus, the growth by the end of 2021 will be not 4.8%, but slightly lower - 4.6%>, he concluded.
To recall, according to the new forecast of the World Bank for 2020, the decline in Armenia's GDP will be 6.3%, against the previously expected 2.8% and actual 7.6% growth in 2019. In 2021, the World Bank expects that Armenia's GDP will grow by 4.6%. According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the economic decline instead of the previously forecasted 6.2% will make 7.2%.
