ArmInfo. Growth of the net inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia in January-September 2020 by 28.5% per annum- up to $ 429.6 million (against a 25.69% decline a year earlier) is supported by a jump in the net inflow of remittances from the United States - 8- fold to $ 200.6 million (against a 4-fold decline a year earlier). According to the Central Bank of Armenia, the inflow of individual transfers to Armenia from the United States in January-September 2020 accelerated the annual growth from 29.3% to 50.7%, amounting to $ 301.6 million, while the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the United States from last year's 71.6 % growth went down 56.9%, amounting to $ 101.04 million.
At the same time, the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in January-September 2020 accelerated the annual decline to 26.7% from 0.7% in the same period of 2019, and the outflow of transfers from Armenia to Russia grew by 10.1% from 11. 3% decline a year earlier. This worsened the annual dynamics of the net inflow of transfers from Russia to a 49.1% decline in January-September 2020 from 7.1% growth in January-September 2019. As a result, the inflow of transfers from Russia amounted to $ 560.4 million in January-September 2020, and the outflow to Russia - $ 318.4 million, which formed a net inflow in this direction at the level of $ 242.04 million. The gap between the inflow and outflow of transfers in the Armenia-Russia direction has narrowed in five years from 4 to 2 times while in the direction of Armenia- USA this gap increased from 2 to 3 times.
In total, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia turned the annual dynamics in January- September 2020 towards 8.8% decline from 9.1% growth in the same period of 2019, amounting to $ 1.3 billion. A more noticeable deterioration in the trend was observed in outflow of transfers - a reversal from 28.7% growth to 20.5% decline, the volume of which amounted to $ 848.8 million. In the inflow, the share of Russia decreased in January-September 2020 to 43.8% from 54.6% in January- September 2019 (against 60.2% in January-September 2018), while increasing in outflow - from 27.1% to 37.5% (against 39.3% in January-September 2018). And the share of the United States in the inflow, on the contrary, increased in y- o-y terms from 14.3% to 23.6% (against 12.1% in January-September 2018), while decreasing in the outflow from 22% to 12% (against 16, 5% in January-September 2018).
In January-September 2020 (September compared to December 2019), the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia decreased by 12%, and in August alone there was a decline of 2.1%, while a year earlier a nine-month decline of 4.7% was accompanied by a September decline of 8.4%. The outflow demonstrated a more significant decline in the reporting period - by 16.8% in 9 months with a September growth of 23.5%, against last year's 5% growth in 9 months with a 17.5% decline in September. Moreover, in the direction of the Russian Federation, a nine-month decline was observed both in the inflow (by 30.7%) and in the outflow (by 42.6%), and in September alone in both cases there was a decline of 9.6% and 19.9%. respectively. As for transfers to the USA, the nine-month and September dynamics of inflow and outflow are upward. Thus, the increase in the inflow of transfers from the United States for 9 months in 2 times was accompanied by an increase in outflow by 35.9%, and in September alone, the growth in inflow and outflow amounted to 10.5% and 27.9%, respectively. As a result, the net inflow of transfers from Russia was in decline over 9 months (13.9%) with a September growth of 2.8%, and from the United States it was in growth both in 9 months (by 2.5 times) and in September (5.7%). As a result, over 9 months, the net inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia slowed down the decline to 0.7%, while in September alone it reversed from growth to 30% decline. To note, the Central Bank of Armenia in its September updated forecast for 2020 slightly improved expectations for a decline in the inflow of private transfers to 19-22% from the previously expected 22- 25%. The Central Bank in this updated forecast report draws attention to the change in the country structure of private transfers, noting that the reduced volume of transfers from Russia is being made up by remittances from the United States and other countries, presumably due to growing transfers of an "altruistic" nature.
To recall, according to the Central Bank of Armenia, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia in 2019 increased by 9.7% - to $ 1.959 billion, while the outflow grew by 22.4% - to $ 1.455 billion, as a result of which the net inflow of transfers decreased by 15.5 % - to $ 504 million. The share of Russia decreased in 2019 both in the inflow - from 58.8% to 53.9%, and in the outflow - from 39.7% to 29.3%. The inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in 2019 came out of recession to growth by 0.6%, while the outflow of money to Russia, on the contrary, went from growth to decline by 9.7%, which led to the trend of net inflow of transfers from Russia out of a 9% decline.
