Thursday, November 26 2020 21:00
Karine Melikyan

In Armenia, the decline in economic activity is accelerating

In Armenia, the decline in economic activity is accelerating

ArmInfo. In Armenia, the decline in economic activity in January-October 2020 deepened to 6.7% per annum, against the backdrop of an accelerating decline in imports  and a slowdown in exports.

In October this year versus October 2019,  economic activity decreased by 8.1%, while in October 2020 alone  it  decreased by 4.9% after the September growth by 10.6%. A year  earlier, in January-October 2019, against the same period of 2018,  economic activity increased by 7.1%, in October compared to October  2018 - by 7.7%, while in October alone, it decreased by 4.7%.

According to the preliminary data of the Statistical Committee of the  Republic of Armenia, the industries that previously acted as drivers  of growth in economic activity are now in decline amid the  coronavirus crisis and martial law, and only the industrial sector  and the energy complex were able to maintain growth close to  stagnation. So, in January-October 2020, the industrial sector was in  0.5% growth, and the energy complex in 1.7% growth. The rest of the  fields showed a decline: construction - by 13.3%, services - by  12.8%, trade - by 12.5%. A year earlier, in January-October 2019, the  growth of economic activity was caused by the service sector - by  15.1%, trade - by 8.9% and the industrial sector - by 8.8%, and in  the construction sector, growth slowed down to 4.5%, the energy  complex was in a decline of 2.7%. For the agricultural sector, only  quarterly data are published.

The industrial product price index increased in January-October 2020  compared to the same period in 2019 by 2%, in October 2020 compared  to October 2019 - by 4.1%, and in October 2020 alone decreased by  0.7% after the September growth by 0, 9%. A year earlier, in  January-October 2019 compared to the same period in 2018, the  industrial product price index increased by 0.5%, in October 2019  compared to October 2018 - the same (0.5%), and in October 2019 alone  decreased by 0.9 %.

In monthly terms (for October), only the industrial sector and the  construction sector remained in growth - by 3.2% and 3%,  respectively, and the industrial sector managed to slightly  accelerate the pace from September 3.1%, and the construction sector,  on the contrary, significantly slowed down growth from September  9.4%. The rest of the industries in the reporting month went into  recession: trade - by 13.4% (from 5.2% growth in September), services  - by 2.9% (from 4.1% growth in September), and the energy complex  slowed down the decline to 1.8% from 3.7% in September. A year  earlier, in October 2019, the industries that showed growth were the  industrial sector - 8.8%, the construction sector - 2% and the  service sector - 0.4%, while trade and the energy complex were in  decline - 1.7% and 6.2%, respectively.

In y-o-y terms (October 2020 to October 2019), only the energy  complex and the construction sector remained in growth - by 3% and  0.3%, respectively, and the rest of the sectors showed a decline: the  service sector - by 21%, the trade sector - by 20.9% , industrial  sector - by 3%. A year earlier, in October 2019 by October 2018,  these areas, with the exception of the energy complex, were in  growth: services - 12.4%, trade - 10.2%, construction - 5.1%,  industrial sector - 2.7%, and the energy complex was in decline by  7.7%.

According to statistics in January-October 2020, the absolute  leadership is held by the trade sector with a volume of 2.3 trillion  drams ($ 4.7 billion). The second position was held by the industrial  sector with a volume of 1.6 trillion ($ 3.4 billion), the third  position was held by the services sector - 1.4 trillion drams ($ 2.9  billion), the fourth, due to the lack of data on the agricultural  sector, is occupied by the construction sector - 271.1 billion drams  ($ 559 million). In January-October 2020, the volume of electricity  generation amounted to 6357.9 million kWh, of which in October alone  - 620.9 million kWh.  Armenia's foreign trade turnover in  January-October 2020 amounted to 2.8 trillion drams ($ 5.7 billion),  being in a decline of 11.4% per annum. Moreover, the reduction in  import volumes turned out to be more significant - by 14.9% to 1.8  trillion drams ($ 3.6 billion) than exports - by 4.4% to 996 billion  drams ($ 2.1 billion). In October 2020, the dynamics of foreign trade  turnover reversed from 4.9% growth to 4.3% decline, due to a decline  in exports by 12.9% (from 8.7% growth in September) and a slowdown in  import growth from 2.7% to 1.2%. And in October 2020, compared with  October 2019, a decrease in foreign trade turnover by 18.5% was  provoked by a decline in imports by 24.3%, while a decline in exports  by 5.4%. A year earlier, in January-October 2019, an increase in  Armenia's foreign trade turnover by 6.5% was provoked by an increase  in exports by 7.2% and imports - by 6.2%, in October alone, foreign  trade turnover increased by 0.1% due to an increase in imports by  2.1% with a decline in exports by 4.4%, and compared to October 2018,  the growth of foreign trade turnover by 11% came mainly from an  increase in imports by 15.8% with an increase in exports of only  1.3%.

The average calculated AMD exchange rate was 491.74 AMD / $ 1 in  October 2020, and 484.96 AMD / $ 1 in January-October 2020, against  476.3 AMD / $ 1 in October 2019 and 481 AMD / $ 1 in January- October  2019


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