ArmInfo. Growth in the net inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia in January-October 2020 by 29.8% per annum- up to $ 523.6 million (against a 20.1% decline a year earlier) is supported by a jump in the net inflow of remittances from the USA - 12 -fold to $ 238.3 million (against a 3-fold decline a year earlier). According to the Central Bank of the
Republic of Armenia, the inflow of individual transfers to Armenia from the United States in January-October 2020 accelerated the y-o-y growth from 29.8% to 57.7%, amounting to $ 359.4 million, while the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the United States from last year's 65.4 % growth went down by 51.8%, amounting to $ 121.2 million.
At the same time, the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in January-October 2020 accelerated the annual decline to 22% from 0.6% in the same period of 2019, and the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the Russian Federation grew by 11.5% from 17.5% recession a year earlier. This worsened the y-o-y dynamics of the net inflow of transfers from Russia to a 41.6% decline in January-October 2020 from a 12.9% growth in January-October 2019. As a result, the inflow of transfers from Russia amounted to $ 671.9 million in January-October 2020, and the outflow to the RF - $ 354.8 million, which formed a net inflow in this direction at the level of $ 317.1 million. The gap between the inflow and outflow of transfers in the Armenia-Russia direction has narrowed in five years from 4 to 2 times, while in the Armenia-USA direction this gap has increased from 2 to 3 times.
In total, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia turned the annual dynamics in January-October 2020 towards a 5.9% decline from 8.8% growth in the same period of 2019, amounting to $ 1.5 billion. A more noticeable deterioration in the trend was observed in outflow of transfers - a reversal from 24% growth to 18.1% decline, the volume of which amounted to $ 966.3 million. In the inflow, the share of Russia decreased in January-October 2020 to 45.1% from 54.4% in January-October 2019 (against 59.5% in January-October 2018), while increasing in outflow - from 27% to 36.7% (against 40.6% in January- October 2018). And the share of the United States in the inflow, on the contrary, increased in y-o-y terms from 14.4% to 24.1% (against 12.1% in January-October 2018), while reducing in the outflow from 21.3% to 12.5% (against 16% in January-October 2018).
In October 2020, compared to October 2019, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia increased by 16.6%, and in October alone, an increase of 11% was recorded, while a year earlier, a modest annual growth of 2.8% was recorded, with an increase of 9,5% in October. At the same time, the annual growth of outflow was 4.6%, with the October decline by 6.2%, against the last year's decline in both cases by 7.4% y-o-y and 13.2% in October. Moreover, in the direction of the Russian Federation, the annual growth of inflow by 15.3% was accompanied by an increase in outflow by 25%, and in October alone there was a noticeable increase in inflow by 45.8% with a negligible decline in outflow by 1.7%. As for transfers to the United States, the annual dynamics of inflow and outflow is upward, and the October one is multidirectional. Thus, the 2.1-fold increase in the inflow of transfers from the United States in y-o-y terms was accompanied by an increase in the outflow by 16.9%, and in October alone there was a decline in the inflow of 6%, while the outflow grew by 31.1%. As a result, the net inflow of transfers from Russia showed an increase both in y-o-y terms (by 11.2%) and in October (by 90.5%), and from the United States was in growth in y-o-y terms (3.6-fold) with decline in October (by 18.4%). As a result, the net inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia increased in October 2020 compared to October 2019 by 36.1%, while in October alone, the dynamics came out of a 30% decline by 43.8% growth. To note, the Central Bank of Armenia in its September updated forecast for 2020 slightly improved expectations for a decline in the inflow of private transfers to 19-22% from the previously expected 22- 25%. In this updated forecast report, the Central Bank of Armenia draws attention to the change in the country structure of private transfers, noting that the reduced volume of transfers from Russia is being compensated by remittances from the United States and other countries, presumably due to growing transfers of an "altruistic" nature.
To recall, according to the Central Bank of Armenia, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia in 2019 increased by 9.7% - to $ 1.959 billion, while the outflow grew by 22.4% - to $ 1.455 billion, as a result of which the net inflow of transfers decreased by 15.5 % - to $ 504 million. The share of Russia decreased in 2019 both in the inflow - from 58.8% to 53.9%, and in the outflow - from 39.7% to 29.3%. The inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in 2019 came out of recession into growth by 0.6%, while the outflow of money to the Russian Federation, on the contrary, went from growth to decline by 9.7%, which led to the trend of net inflow of transfers from Russia out of a 9% decline.
