ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia forecasts an increase in the net inflow of private transfers in the range of 7-9% for 2021.
This is set out in the Central Bank's monetary policy program for the first quarter of 2021, published on March 31, where the forecast growth for Armenia's GDP for 2021 is revised towards a weaker rate - 1.4%, against the previously expected 2%. The Central Bank determines its forecast for money transfers of individuals by the expected activation of the Russian economy and the partial recovery of seasonal labor migration as a result of the gradual easing of restrictive measures. At the same time, according to the Central Bank of Armenia, a high level of money transfers from the United States will continue.
It should be noted that according to the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, the inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia turned the annual dynamics in 2020 towards a 6% decline from a 9.7% growth in 2019, exceeding $ 1.8 billion . A more noticeable deterioration in the trend was also observed in the outflow of transfers - a reversal from a 22.4% growth to a 12.9% decline, the volume of which amounted to $ 1.3 billion. This brought the trend of net inflows of transfers from a 15.5% decline in 2019 to a 14% increase in 2020, forming at the level of $574.3 million. In the inflow, the share of Russia decreased in 2020 to 45% from 54% in 2019 (against 59% in 2018), while increasing in the outflow - from 29% to 36% (against 40% in 2018). And the US share of inflows, on the contrary, increased from 14% to 25% year-on-year (against 13% in 2018), while decreasing in outflows from 19% to 13% (against 16% in 2018). Moreover, the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in 2020 worsened the dynamics to 21.9% decline from 0.6% growth in 2019, and the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the Russian Federation, on the contrary, came out of rthe 9.7% decline to 7.9% growth. This worsened the annual dynamics of net inflows of transfers from Russia to a 42.1% decline in 2020 rfrom a 9% increase in 2019.
Note that according to the World Bank forecast, Russia's GDP growth will be 2.9% in 2021 (against a 3.1% decline in 2020). The Central Bank of Russia expects GDP growth in 2021 in the range of 3-4%, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation-growth of 3.3%. In terms of Armenia's GDP, the World Bank slightly improved its forecast growth for 2021 from the previous 3.1% to the current 3.4% (against the actual 7.6% decline in 2020), the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, on the contrary, lowered its expectations for economic growth from the previous 2% to the current 1.4%, and the state budget of the Republic of Armenia includes GDP growth of 3.2%.