Wednesday, March 31 2021 12:11
Karine Melikyan

The Central Bank of Armenia predicts an increase in the net inflow of  private transfers in the range of 7-9 in 2021%

The Central Bank of Armenia predicts an increase in the net inflow of  private transfers in the range of 7-9 in 2021%

ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia forecasts an increase in the net inflow of private transfers in the range of 7-9% for 2021.

This is set out in the Central Bank's monetary policy program for the first quarter of 2021, published on March 31, where the forecast growth for Armenia's GDP for 2021 is  revised towards a weaker rate - 1.4%, against the previously expected  2%.  The Central Bank determines its forecast for money transfers of  individuals by the expected activation of the Russian economy and the  partial recovery of seasonal labor migration as a result of the  gradual easing of restrictive measures. At the same time, according  to the Central Bank of Armenia, a high level of money transfers from  the United States will continue.

It should be noted that according to the Central Bank of the Republic  of Armenia, the inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia turned  the annual dynamics in 2020 towards a 6% decline from a 9.7% growth  in 2019, exceeding $ 1.8 billion . A more noticeable deterioration in  the trend was also observed in the outflow of transfers - a reversal  from a 22.4% growth to a 12.9% decline, the volume of which amounted  to $ 1.3 billion. This brought the trend of net inflows of transfers  from a 15.5% decline in 2019 to a 14% increase in 2020, forming at  the level of $574.3 million. In the inflow, the share of Russia  decreased in 2020 to 45% from 54% in 2019 (against 59% in 2018),  while increasing in the outflow - from 29% to 36% (against 40% in  2018). And the US share of inflows, on the contrary, increased from  14% to 25% year-on-year (against 13% in 2018), while decreasing in  outflows from 19% to 13% (against 16% in 2018). Moreover, the inflow  of transfers from Russia to Armenia in 2020 worsened the dynamics to  21.9% decline from 0.6% growth in 2019, and the outflow of transfers  from Armenia to the Russian Federation, on the contrary, came out of  rthe 9.7% decline to 7.9% growth. This worsened the annual dynamics  of net inflows of transfers from Russia to a 42.1% decline in 2020  rfrom a 9% increase in 2019.

Note that according to the World Bank forecast, Russia's GDP growth  will be 2.9% in 2021 (against a 3.1% decline in 2020). The Central  Bank of Russia expects GDP growth in 2021 in the range of 3-4%, the  Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation-growth of  3.3%. In terms of Armenia's GDP, the World Bank slightly improved its  forecast growth for 2021 from the previous 3.1% to the current 3.4%  (against the actual 7.6% decline in 2020), the Central Bank of the  Republic of Armenia, on the contrary, lowered its expectations for  economic growth from the previous 2% to the current 1.4%, and the  state budget of the Republic of Armenia includes GDP growth of 3.2%.  

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