ArmInfo.According to the new forecast of the World Bank (WB) regarding GDP growth in 2021 among the EAEU countries, Armenia ranks second (3.4%), but at the rate of 2022 it shares the lead with Kyrgyzstan (4.3%).
This is outlined in the new March WB report on the Europe and Central Asia region "Data, Digitalization, and Governance. Economic Prospects and Long-Term Challenges". Forecasts for Armenia's neighboring countries were also revised In Georgia, according to the WB forecast, GDP growth in 2021 will amount to 4% with an acceleration to 5% in 2022, in Azerbaijan - GDP growth by 2.8% in 2021 will accelerate to 3.9% in 2022, and in Turkey the expected in 2021 GDP growth by 5% will slow down in 2022 to 4.5%.
Most of the EAEU countries have predicted growth
In the EAEU countries, the World Bank's GDP expectations for 2021 have also improved towards growth, except for Belarus, whose economy is expected to further decline to 2.2% with a 1.9% growth in 2022. In terms of Russia's GDP, growth is forecasted for 2021 by 2.9% with an acceleration in 2022 to 3.2%, in Kazakhstan - growth by 3.2% with an acceleration in 2022 to 3.5%, in Kyrgyzstan - growth by 3.8% with an acceleration in 2022 to 4.3%.
Economic growth is also forecasted for the ECA region
For the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region, the World Bank forecasts economic growth of 3.6% in 2021, accelerating to 3.8% in 2022. And only in the region of Central Asia, the economy is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2021, accelerating to 4.1% in 2022.
Forecasts of economies of countries importing raw materials are better than exporters
In the countries-importers of raw materials, according to the WB forecast, economic growth in 2021 will be 4.2%, against the expected positive 3.1% in the countries-exporters of raw materials, which can also be traced according to the forecast for 2022 - 4.3% for importers against 3.3% for exporters. Recall that the previous January forecast of the World Bank predicted Armenia's GDP growth in 2021 by 3.1% with an acceleration in 2022 to 4.5%. According to the new March forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, GDP growth in 2021 will be 1.4%. The state budget of Armenia for 2021 provides for a GDP growth of 3.2%.
Note that, according to the statistics of the listed countries, the decline in GDP in 2020 was recorded in Armenia - by 7.6%, Georgia - by 6.2%, Azerbaijan - by 4.3%, Russia - by 3.1%, Kazakhstan - by 2.6%, Kyrgyzstan - by 8.6%, Belarus - by 0.9%. And Turkey's GDP growth, according to the country's statistics, stagnated in 2020 by a weak 1.8%. In the region of Europe and Central Asia, the economic decline since 2020 was 2%, and only in the Central Asia region, the economic decline was recorded by 1.5%. In commodity exporting countries, the economic decline in 2020 was 3%, and in commodity importing countries - 1%.
