Wednesday, March 31 2021 20:28
Karine Melikyan

New WB forecast: Armenia ranks second in terms of GDP growth in 2021  among the EAEU countries, and at the rate of 2022 it shares the lead  with Kyrgyzstan

New WB forecast: Armenia ranks second in terms of GDP growth in 2021  among the EAEU countries, and at the rate of 2022 it shares the lead  with Kyrgyzstan

ArmInfo.According to the new forecast of the World Bank (WB) regarding GDP growth in 2021 among the EAEU countries, Armenia ranks second (3.4%), but at the rate of  2022 it shares the lead with Kyrgyzstan (4.3%).

This is outlined in the new March WB report on the Europe and Central Asia region "Data, Digitalization, and Governance. Economic Prospects and Long-Term  Challenges". Forecasts for Armenia's neighboring countries were also  revised In Georgia, according to the WB forecast, GDP growth in 2021  will amount to 4% with an acceleration to 5% in 2022, in Azerbaijan -  GDP growth by 2.8% in 2021 will accelerate to 3.9% in 2022, and in  Turkey the expected in 2021 GDP growth by 5% will slow down in 2022  to 4.5%.

Most of the EAEU countries have predicted growth

In the EAEU countries, the World Bank's GDP expectations for 2021  have also improved towards growth, except for Belarus, whose economy  is expected to further decline to 2.2% with a 1.9% growth in 2022. In  terms of Russia's GDP, growth is forecasted for 2021 by 2.9% with an  acceleration in 2022 to 3.2%, in Kazakhstan - growth by 3.2% with an  acceleration in 2022 to 3.5%, in Kyrgyzstan - growth by 3.8% with an  acceleration in 2022 to 4.3%.

Economic growth is also forecasted for the ECA region

For the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region, the World Bank  forecasts economic growth of 3.6% in 2021, accelerating to 3.8% in  2022. And only in the region of Central Asia, the economy is expected  to grow by 3.7% in 2021, accelerating to 4.1% in 2022.

Forecasts of economies of countries importing raw materials are  better than exporters

In the countries-importers of raw materials, according to the WB  forecast, economic growth in 2021 will be 4.2%, against the expected  positive 3.1% in the countries-exporters of raw materials, which can  also be traced according to the forecast for 2022 - 4.3% for  importers against 3.3% for exporters.  Recall that the previous  January forecast of the World Bank predicted Armenia's GDP growth in  2021 by 3.1% with an acceleration in 2022 to 4.5%. According to the  new March forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, GDP growth in 2021  will be 1.4%. The state budget of Armenia for 2021 provides for a GDP  growth of 3.2%.

Note that, according to the statistics of the listed countries, the  decline in GDP in 2020 was recorded in Armenia - by 7.6%, Georgia -  by 6.2%, Azerbaijan - by 4.3%, Russia - by 3.1%, Kazakhstan - by  2.6%, Kyrgyzstan - by 8.6%, Belarus - by 0.9%. And Turkey's GDP  growth, according to the country's statistics, stagnated in 2020 by a  weak 1.8%. In the region of Europe and Central Asia, the economic  decline since 2020 was 2%, and only in the Central Asia region, the  economic decline was recorded by 1.5%. In commodity exporting  countries, the economic decline in 2020 was 3%, and in commodity  importing countries - 1%.

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