ArmInfo. Armenia's gross external debt, which already in 2020 exceeded GDP to 103.5%, will continue to prevail over GDP both in 2021 (107%) and in 2021 (105.1%). Thus, the gross debt of the Armenian government will reach 69.9% of GDP in 2021 (from 62.8% of GDP in 2020), and then in 2022 it will modestly decrease to 68.8% of GDP. This is stated in the new IMF report "Regional Economic Outlook Update: Middle East and Central Asia", which presents a detailed forecast of key indicators of Armenia.
Thus, the IMF forecasts GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 by 1% to $ 12.3 billion (against the actual 7.6% decline in 2020 to $ 12.3 billion), with an acceleration in 2022 to 3.5% to reach $ 13 billion. Consumer price inflation in Armenia is predicted by the IMF for 2021 at an average of 3.9%, and for 2022 - at 3.2%, against the actual 1.2% in 2020 (January-December versus January-December 2019). And the core consumer price inflation, according to the IMF, will rise from the actual 1.3% in 2020 to 3.7% in 2021, but then drop to 2% in 2022.
Money supply growth will slow down from 11.5% in 2020 to 8.1% in 2021, followed by a slowdown to 6.6% in 2022.
The ratio of government loans / borrowing will be minus 5.4% of GDP in 2021, and in 2022 it will decrease to minus 2.6% of GDP, against higher minus 6.9% of GDP in 2020. The deficit of the state budget of Armenia in 2021 will be 5.4% of GDP, with a subsequent decrease in 2022 to 2.6% of GDP, against 6.9% of GDP in 2020. State revenues (excluding subsidies) will amount to 23.2% of GDP in 2021, against a similar 23.3% of GDP in 2020, and in 2022 will increase to 24.2% of GDP.
The volume of exports of goods and services from $ 3.7 billion in 2020 will reach $ 4.1 billion in 2021, with a further increase in 2022 to $ 4.8 billion. The volume of imports of goods and services from $ 5 billion in 2020 will reach $ 5.6 billion in 2021, with a further increase in 2022 to $ 6.4 billion. The current account deficit will increase from $ 0.6 billion in 2020 to $ 0.8 billion in 2021, and will continue to grow in 2022 to $ 0.9 billion. The current account deficit to GDP ratio will increase from 4.6% in 2020 to 6.7% in 2021, and will decrease in 2022 only up to 6.6%.
Armenia's gross international reserves will rise from $ 2.6 billion in 2020 to $ 2.8 billion in 2021 and will remain at this level in 2022. The degree of coverage of imports by international reserves (sufficiency of international reserves to cover imports), after a decrease from 6.8 months in 2019 to 5.6 months in 2020, will continue to decline in the next two years - in 2021 to 5.2 months and in 2022 to 4.7 months.
To note, according to the World Bank's forecast, GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 year will be 3.4%, with an acceleration in 2022 to 4.3%. Inflation in Armenia, the World Bank predicts for 2021 at the level of 3.5% with some increase in 2022 to 3.8% (against actual inflation of 3.7% in January-December 2020, with an annual inflation rate of 1.2%). The WB also predicts an 8.7% growth in exports of goods and services from Armenia for 2021, accelerating to 12.2% in 2022, and imports will accelerate from 8.3% in 2021 to 9.2% in 2022. The WB forecast current account deficit in Armenia at 4.8% of GDP in 2021 with an increase to 5.5% of GDP in 2022.
On the state debt of Armenia, the World Bank predicts growth to 70.8% of GDP in 2021, with a slight decrease in 2022 to 70.6% of GDP. The ratio of the state budget deficit to GDP, according to the WB forecast, will be 5.3% in 2021, with a decrease in 2022 to 3.8%. According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2021, GDP growth will be 1.4%, export growth - 1-3%, import decline - 2-4%, the ratio of current account deficit to GDP will be within 2-4%, and the ratio of the state budget deficit to GDP will be 5.3%. The RA state budget for 2021 is based on GDP growth of 3.2% and inflation at the level of 4% (+/- 1.5).
