Wednesday, May 5 2021 15:04
Karine Melikyan

Central Bank of Armenia: Private transfers have registered growth-  tangible in inflow and weak in outflow

Central Bank of Armenia: Private transfers have registered growth-  tangible in inflow and weak in outflow

ArmInfo.The rise in the growth of the net inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia in the first quarter of 2021 is supported by the high growth rates of the net  inflow of remittances from the United States - 2.6-fold to $ 74  million (against 5-fold growth a year earlier).

 According to the  Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, the inflow of individual  transfers to Armenia from the United States in the first quarter of  2021 accelerated the annual growth from 9.7% to 87.3%, amounting to $  117.9 million, along with which the trend of the outflow of transfers  from Armenia to the United States reversed from 34.3% recession by  26.9% - up to $ 43.9 million.

At the same time, the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in  the first quarter of 2021 lingered in a decline with a slowdown in  annual rates from 16% to 6.3%, which was also observed in the outflow  of transfers from Armenia to the Russian Federation - from 27.6% to  0.8%. This worsened the annual dynamics of the net inflow of  transfers from Russia to a 12.5% decline in Q1 2021 from 2.4% growth  in Q1 2020. As a result, the inflow of transfers from Russia amounted  to $ 154 million in the first quarter of 2021, and the outflow to the  Russian Federation - $ 86 million, which formed a net inflow in this  direction at the level of $ 68 million.  In total, the inflow of  transfers from individuals to Armenia turned the annual dynamics in  the first quarter of 2021 towards 14.7% growth from a 9.7% decline in  the first quarter of 2020, amounting to $ 405.6 million. A less  noticeable improvement in the trend was observed in the outflow of  transfers - a reversal from 7.1% decline to 3.9% growth, the volume  of which amounted to $ 276.5 million. As a result, the annual trend  of net inflow of transfers to Armenia also reached an upward 47.7%  from a downward 16.7%, providing a volume of $ 129.1 million.

In the inflow, the share of Russia decreased in the 1st quarter of  2021 to 38% from 46.5% in the 1st quarter of 2020 (against 50% in the  1st quarter of 2019 and 56.3% in the 1st quarter of 2018), and began  to decrease in the outflow - from 32,6% to 31.1% (against 41.8% in Q1  2019 and 37.1% in Q1 2018). And the share of the United States in the  inflow, on the contrary, increased on an annualized basis from 17.8%  to 29.1% (against 14.7% in Q1 2019 and 12.4% in Q1 2018), having also  increased in outflow from 13% to 15.9% (versus 18.4% in Q1 2019 and  17.8% in Q1 2018).

On a monthly basis, in March 2021 alone, the net inflow of transfers  to Armenia jumped 2.1-fold, as a result of the growth of inflows by  21.1%, while the outflow fell into a 7.1% decline. In particular, in  the direction of Russia, there was an acceleration of growth in both  inflows and outflows- to 20.1% and 28.8%, respectively, and in the  direction of the United States, the acceleration of the growth of  inflow to 23.8% was accompanied by a slowdown in the decline in  outflow to 2.2%.  Meanwhile, the March forecast of the Central Bank  of Armenia foreshadowed an increase in the net inflow of private  transfers in the range of 7-9% for 2021. 

The Central Bank determines its forecast by the expected  revitalization of the Russian economy and a partial recovery of  seasonal labor migration as a result of the gradual relaxation of  restrictive measures. At the same time, according to the Central Bank  of Armenia, a high level of remittances from the United States will  maintain. 

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