ArmInfo.The rise in the growth of the net inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia in the first quarter of 2021 is supported by the high growth rates of the net inflow of remittances from the United States - 2.6-fold to $ 74 million (against 5-fold growth a year earlier).
According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, the inflow of individual transfers to Armenia from the United States in the first quarter of 2021 accelerated the annual growth from 9.7% to 87.3%, amounting to $ 117.9 million, along with which the trend of the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the United States reversed from 34.3% recession by 26.9% - up to $ 43.9 million.
At the same time, the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in the first quarter of 2021 lingered in a decline with a slowdown in annual rates from 16% to 6.3%, which was also observed in the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the Russian Federation - from 27.6% to 0.8%. This worsened the annual dynamics of the net inflow of transfers from Russia to a 12.5% decline in Q1 2021 from 2.4% growth in Q1 2020. As a result, the inflow of transfers from Russia amounted to $ 154 million in the first quarter of 2021, and the outflow to the Russian Federation - $ 86 million, which formed a net inflow in this direction at the level of $ 68 million. In total, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia turned the annual dynamics in the first quarter of 2021 towards 14.7% growth from a 9.7% decline in the first quarter of 2020, amounting to $ 405.6 million. A less noticeable improvement in the trend was observed in the outflow of transfers - a reversal from 7.1% decline to 3.9% growth, the volume of which amounted to $ 276.5 million. As a result, the annual trend of net inflow of transfers to Armenia also reached an upward 47.7% from a downward 16.7%, providing a volume of $ 129.1 million.
In the inflow, the share of Russia decreased in the 1st quarter of 2021 to 38% from 46.5% in the 1st quarter of 2020 (against 50% in the 1st quarter of 2019 and 56.3% in the 1st quarter of 2018), and began to decrease in the outflow - from 32,6% to 31.1% (against 41.8% in Q1 2019 and 37.1% in Q1 2018). And the share of the United States in the inflow, on the contrary, increased on an annualized basis from 17.8% to 29.1% (against 14.7% in Q1 2019 and 12.4% in Q1 2018), having also increased in outflow from 13% to 15.9% (versus 18.4% in Q1 2019 and 17.8% in Q1 2018).
On a monthly basis, in March 2021 alone, the net inflow of transfers to Armenia jumped 2.1-fold, as a result of the growth of inflows by 21.1%, while the outflow fell into a 7.1% decline. In particular, in the direction of Russia, there was an acceleration of growth in both inflows and outflows- to 20.1% and 28.8%, respectively, and in the direction of the United States, the acceleration of the growth of inflow to 23.8% was accompanied by a slowdown in the decline in outflow to 2.2%. Meanwhile, the March forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia foreshadowed an increase in the net inflow of private transfers in the range of 7-9% for 2021.
The Central Bank determines its forecast by the expected revitalization of the Russian economy and a partial recovery of seasonal labor migration as a result of the gradual relaxation of restrictive measures. At the same time, according to the Central Bank of Armenia, a high level of remittances from the United States will maintain.
