ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia intends to revise the forecast of the country's economic growth for 2021 towards improvement.
Chairman of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia Martyn Galstyan stated this on May 18 during the sitting of the Standing Committee of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia on Financial-Credit and Budgetary Issues. In this regard, he explained that in the first quarter, the pace of recovery in gross demand turned out to be higher than expected. In addition, at the end of the reporting period, the regulator forecasted a decline in economic activity within 6%, but the actual decline was recorded at the level of 2%. In this regard, Galstyan noted that certain positive tendencies during the reporting period were demonstrated by the industrial and service sectors. Among the listed factors stimulating positive expectations, he also referred to the sharp increase in private transfers to Armenia. At the same time, he pointed out that the main share of the latter falls on remittances from the United States, due to the fact that the leadership of this country is pursuing an active policy of providing financial assistance to its citizens in a pandemic, including those who have direct family ties with Armenia.
, said the head of the Central Bank.
It should be noted that according to the data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, economic activity in Armenia in Q1 2021 compared to the same period of 2020 decreased by 2% (against 4% growth in the Q1 2020). Meanwhile, in March 2021 compared to February (on a monthly basis), economic activity increased by 9.6% (against a 0.2% decline in March 2020). On a y-o-y basis (March 2021 to March 2020), economic activity reversed from a 4.9% decline to a 3.8% growth. Armenia's GDP growth by the end of 2021, according to the state budget, will amount to 3.2%. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 by 1% with acceleration in 2022 to 3.5%, the World Bank expects GDP growth by 3.4% for 2021, against the previously expected 3. 1%. The EDB's baseline forecasts a 3.8% GDP growth in Armenia in 2021. Fitch expects Armenia's GDP to grow by 3.2% in 2021. The initial forecast by the Central Bank was 1.4%.
