ArmInfo. In Armenia, economic activity in January-April 2021 increased by 2.6% per annum (against a 1.7% decline a year earlier), against the backdrop of an increase in exports and imports by 16.7% and 2.2%, respectively. According to the preliminary data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, in the sectoral breakdown, growth was demonstrated by all sectors, except for the service sector, and data on the agricultural sector are published in the statistical report only on a quarterly basis.
An improvement in the y-o-y dynamics (January-April 2021 versus January-April 2020) was observed in the trade sector with an exit from the 8.6% decline to 4.8% growth, in the construction sector - from a 21.9% decline to 20.3% growth. At the same time, the industrial sector and the energy complex, which kept their growth, slowed down somewhat from 4.2-10.3% to 0.9-3.1%. And the service sector, which showed a slowdown in growth to stagnant 0.1% a year earlier and then lost in volume, in the reporting period of this year still lingered in a decline of 2.9%.
In April 2021 versus April 2020, economic activity increased by 23.2%, against a decline of 17.2% in April 2020 to April 2019. Growth was observed in all sectors: construction - 87.7%, trade - 47.8%, industrial sector - 16.9%, service sector - 15.4%, and energy complex - 9%. A year earlier, in April 2020 by April 2019, these areas were in decline: construction - 50.9%, trade - 33.1%, services - 15.9%, industrial sector - 8.6% and energy complex - 3.3% .
And in April 2021 alone, economic activity increased by 3.2%, against a decline of 13.5% in April 2020. On a monthly basis, almost all industries grew: the industrial sector - 2.1%, the service sector - 1.2%, the construction sector - 1.1%. The trade sector lingered in the recession - with a noticeable slowdown to 0.2%, and the energy complex - with an acceleration of up to 13%. To note for comparison that a year earlier, in April 2020, all industries were in decline: the construction sector - by 40.6%, the trade sector - by 29.4%, the service sector - by 11.2%, the industrial sector - by 9.2% and the energy complex - by 5.6%.
The industrial product price index increased in January-April 2021 compared to the same period in 2020 by 8.1%, in April 2021 compared to April 2020 - by 11%, and in April 2021 alone - by 0.4%. A year earlier, a similar dynamics was observed in the industrial product price index: in January-April 2020 compared to the same period of 2019 - an increase of 0.1%, in April 2020 versus April 2019 - an increase of 0.8%, and in April 2020 alone- decline by 1.2%.
The consumer price index increased in January-April 2021 to the same period in 2020 by 5.4%, in April 2021 compared to April 2020 - by 6.2%, and in April 2021 alone - by 1.3%, while as a year earlier, in the same periods, a miserable growth was recorded: 0.1% per annum (for January-April) and 0.9% (both for the month and for the year).
According to the statistics for January-April 2021, the absolute leadership is held by the trade sector with a volume of 918.9 billion drams ($ 1.8 billion). The industrial sector is in second place - 650.8 billion ($ 1.2 billion), in the third place is the service sector - 551.02 billion drams ($ 1.1 billion), and in fourth place, due to the lack of data on the agricultural sector, is the construction sector - 69.4 billion drams ($ 132.3 million). The volume of electricity generation amounted to 2,753 million kWh in January-April 2021, of which 640.1 million kWh in April alone. At the same time, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-April 2021 grew by 7.2%, amounting to 1.14 trillion drams ($ 2.2 billion). In its structure, exports turned towards growth - by 16.7% to 429.7 billion drams ($ 818.7 million), and imports - by 2.2% to 709.6 billion drams ($ 1.4 billion). In April 2021 alone, foreign trade turnover increased by 12.9%, due to an increase in exports by 11.9% and imports by 13.6%, and compared to April 2020, the growth of foreign trade turnover by 47.5% was largely due to a jump in exports by 64.3% and a less impressive growth in imports by 39.1%. A year earlier, in January-April 2020, Armenia's foreign trade turnover decreased by 10.4% per annum, in particular, exports - by 8.1% and imports - by 11.5%, in April 2020 alone, the decline in foreign trade turnover by 15.3% proceeded from an almost identical decline in exports and imports - by 15.5% and 15.2%, respectively, and compared to April 2019, these indicators were in a more impressive decline - 28.4%, 30.3% and 27.4%, respectively ...
The average calculated AMD exchange rate in April 2021 was 525.62 AMD / $ 1, and in January-April 2020 - 524.50 AMD / $ 1, against 488.66 AMD / $ 1 - in April 2020 and 483.90 AMD / $ 1 - in January- April 2020. It should be noted that according to the WB forecasts for 2021, the GDP growth of Armenia will be 3.4%, the growth of exports and imports - 8.7% and 8.3%, respectively. The IMF predicts 1% GDP growth in Armenia for 2021. According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, GDP growth in 2021 will amount to 1.4%, but this level is planned to be revised in June. On foreign trade, the Central Bank predicts export growth by 1-3% and import decline by 2-4% for 2021. The state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2021 provides for a GDP growth of 3.2%. According to the updated statistics, the decline in Armenia's GDP in 2020 amounted to 7.4%.
