ArmInfo.Armenia's foreign trade turnover amounted to $ 2.2 billion in January-April 2021, with an improvement in y-o-y dynamics to 7.2% growth (from a 10.4% decline a year earlier).
Moreover, exports (16.7%) showed higher growth than imports (2.2%), with a trend reversal from the downward 8.1% and 11.5%, respectively, a year earlier. According to the final data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the volume of exports reached $ 818.7 million, and imports $ 1.4 billion.
In April 2021, the growth of foreign trade turnover slightly accelerated from 12.8% to 12.9%, due to the same meager acceleration in export growth - from 11.6% to 11.9%, and imports - from 13.5% to 13. 6%. And in April 2021, compared to April 2020, an increase in foreign trade turnover by 47.5% was provoked by a jump in exports by 64.3%, with a less tangible increase in imports by 39.1%, against a decline in all three indicators a year earlier - exports by 30. 3%, imports by 27.4%, foreign trade turnover by 28.4%.
The negative foreign trade balance decreased by 14.2% per annum in January-April 2021 (against a 16.4% decline in the same period of 2020), amounting to $ 532.9 million. Moreover, the negative foreign trade balance of Armenia with the EAEU countries amounted to $ 218.5 million, having decreased on an y-o-y terms by 24% against the background of a decline in imports by 6.1% with an increase in exports by 20.8%. And the negative balance of Armenia's foreign trade with the EU countries amounted to $ 115.9 million, having increased by 22% on a y-o-y terms as a result of improving the dynamics of exports and imports upward by 9.4% and 14.2%, respectively.
The main buyers of Armenian goods in January-April 2021 are Russia - 27% in exports, China - 15.5%, Switzerland - 12.7%, Bulgaria - 7%, Iraq - 5.1%. The main suppliers of imported products to Armenia are Russia - 32.3% in total imports, China - 14.6%, Iran - 8.4%, Germany - 5.2% and Italy - 4.9%.
All export items in January-April showed growth, except for machines / apparatus and leather / fur products, the dynamics of which is still in decline (65.7-48%). The leading item of Armenian export - mineral products - increased by 25.3% to $ 307.1 million, while the second in terms of export volume - prepared food products - increased by 4.4% to $ 166.2 million. The export of base metals and products from them are in the 3rd place - an increase of 18.3% to $ 94.9 million, the 4th- the precious metals and products from them - an increase of 2.8% to $ 80.2 million, and the 5th- products of the textile industry - an increase of 41.4% to $ 51.6 million.
In imports, the leading items showed a more modest growth: the leading item - mineral products - by 2.7% to $ 264.7 million, as well as machinery / equipment / mechanisms - by 3.6% to $ 225.4 million, chemical products - by 0.9% to $ 120.8 million, base metals and products from them - by 1.2% to $ 91.9 million, textile products - by 10.9% to $ 77.7 million, precious and semiprecious metals and products from them - by 30% to $ 66.2 million. At the same time, the decline in imports was observed in such significant items as finished food products - by 8.5% to $ 109.2 million, plant products - by 1.2% to $ 66.7 million. Export of chemical products increased by 7.4% per annum - to $ 9.4 million.
To note, according to the March forecast of the WB, the growth of exports of goods and services from Armenia in 2021 will amount to 8.7% with an acceleration of rates to 12.2% in 2022, and the growth of imports will accelerate from 8.3% in 2021 to 9.2% in 2022, against the actual decline in 2020 of exports by 3.9% and imports by 17.7%. The WB forecast current account deficit in Armenia at 4.8% of GDP in 2021 with an increase to 5.5% of GDP in 2022. According to the IMF's April forecast for Armenia, export volumes will reach $ 4.1 billion in 2021, with a further increase in 2022 to $ 4.8 billion, while import volumes are expected at $ 5.6 billion in 2021 and $ 6.4 billion in 2022. The ratio of the current account deficit to GDP, according to the IMF forecast, will increase in 2021 to 6.7% of GDP, and will decrease in 2022 to only 6.6%. The forecasts of the Central Bank of Armenia on foreign trade foreshadow an increase in exports by 1-3% and a decline in imports by 2-4% for 2021, and the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP will be in the range of 2-4%, but in June it is planned to revise the forecast with improved expectations.
