ArmInfo.The net inflow of transfers from individuals increased in January-April 2021 by 80% per annum (from an 18.7% decline a year earlier) - to $ 203.2 million, which was largely supported by a multi-fold increase in remittances from the United States. This is evidenced by the data of the RA Central Bank.
Thus, the inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia from the USA in January-April 2021 grew 2-fold (from stagnant 0.1% a year earlier), amounting to $ 165.9 million, along with which the trend of the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the USA turned from 38.2% - decline by 23.8% growth - up to $ 57 million. As a result, the net inflow of transfers from individuals from the United States increased 3-fold- up to $ 108.9 million.
At the same time, money transfers in the direction of Russia also increased. In particular, the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in January-April 2021 reversed the annual dynamics from 27.1% decline to 9.4% growth, which was also observed in the outflow of transfers from Armenia to Russia - from 30.3% recession by 13% growth. This led the trend of net inflow of transfers from Russia to an upward 5.2% in January-April 2021 from a downward 23% in January-April 2020. As a result, the volume of the inflow of transfers from Russia in January-April 2021 amounted to $ 217.6 million, and the outflow to the Russian Federation - $ 121.1 million, which formed a net inflow in this direction at the level of $ 96.5 million.
In total, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia turned the annual dynamics in January-April 2021 towards 29.1% growth from a 17.1% decline in January-April 2020, amounting to $ 573.5 million. A similar improvement in the trend was observed in the outflow of transfers - a reversal from a 16.5% decline to 11.8% growth, with a volume of $ 370.3 million. As a result, the annual trend of the net inflow of transfers to Armenia also reversed from a decline to a significant growth.
In the inflow, the share of Russia decreased in January-April 2021 to 38% from 45% in January-April 2020 (against 51% in January-April 2019), starting to increase in the outflow - from 32.4% to 32.7% (against 38 ,7% in January-April 2019). And the share of the United States in the inflow, on the contrary, increased in y-o-y terms from 18.4% to 29% (versus 15.3% in January-April 2019), and also increased in the outflow from 14% to 15.4% (versus 18, 8% in January-April 2019).
In monthly terms, the net inflow of transfers to Armenia sharply slowed down the pace from a 2.1-fold jump in March to an April growth of 12.5%, as a result of a slowdown in the upward trend in inflow from 21.1% to 5.3%, while the outflow dynamics from 7.1% decline for an insignificant 0.2% growth. In particular, in the direction of Russia there was a slowdown in growth in inflow from 20.1% to 1.4%, with a reversal of the outflow trend from an upward 28.8% to a downward 5.3%, and in the direction of the United States, a slowdown in the growth of inflow from 23.8 % to 5% was accompanied by the preservation of the rate of decline in outflow at the level of 2.2%.
To note, the March forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia foreshadowed an increase in the net inflow of private transfers in the range of 7-9% for 2021. The Central Bank determined its forecast by the expected revitalization of the Russian economy and a partial recovery of seasonal labor migration as a result of the gradual relaxation of restrictive measures. According to the Central Bank of Armenia, the high level of remittances from the United States will continue. But recall that on June 15, the Central Bank of Armenia intends to update the forecast for 2021, and, judging by the recent statement of the head of the Central Bank, GDP growth expectations will be improved from the previously announced 1.4% to a higher level, in connection with which the forecast ranges will be revised for other indicators. Among the factors stimulating positive expectations, the head of the Central Bank named a sharp increase in private transfers to Armenia, mainly due to the high activity of remittances from the United States.
