Thursday, June 10 2021 17:35

ArmInfo.The net inflow of transfers from individuals increased in January-April 2021 by 80% per annum (from an 18.7% decline a year earlier) - to $ 203.2 million,  which was largely supported by a multi-fold increase in remittances  from the United States. This is evidenced by the data of the RA  Central Bank.

Thus, the inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia from the USA  in January-April 2021 grew 2-fold (from stagnant 0.1% a year  earlier), amounting to $ 165.9 million, along with which the trend of  the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the USA turned from 38.2% -  decline by 23.8% growth - up to $ 57 million. As a result, the net  inflow of transfers from individuals from the United States increased  3-fold- up to $ 108.9 million.

At the same time, money transfers in the direction of Russia also  increased. In particular, the inflow of transfers from Russia to  Armenia in January-April 2021 reversed the annual dynamics from 27.1%  decline to 9.4% growth, which was also observed in the outflow of  transfers from Armenia to Russia - from 30.3% recession by 13%  growth. This led the trend of net inflow of transfers from Russia to  an upward 5.2% in January-April 2021 from a downward 23% in  January-April 2020. As a result, the volume of the inflow of  transfers from Russia in January-April 2021 amounted to $ 217.6  million, and the outflow to the Russian Federation - $ 121.1 million,  which formed a net inflow in this direction at the level of $ 96.5  million.

In total, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia turned  the annual dynamics in January-April 2021 towards 29.1% growth from a  17.1% decline in January-April 2020, amounting to $ 573.5 million. A  similar improvement in the trend was observed in the outflow of  transfers - a reversal from a 16.5% decline to 11.8% growth, with a  volume of $ 370.3 million. As a result, the annual trend of the net  inflow of transfers to Armenia also reversed from a decline to a  significant growth.

In the inflow, the share of Russia decreased in January-April 2021 to  38% from 45% in January-April 2020 (against 51% in January-April  2019), starting to increase in the outflow - from 32.4% to 32.7%  (against 38 ,7% in January-April 2019). And the share of the United  States in the inflow, on the contrary, increased in y-o-y terms from  18.4% to 29% (versus 15.3% in January-April 2019), and also increased  in the outflow from 14% to 15.4% (versus 18, 8% in January-April  2019).

In monthly terms, the net inflow of transfers to Armenia sharply  slowed down the pace from a 2.1-fold jump in March to an April growth  of 12.5%, as a result of a slowdown in the upward trend in inflow  from 21.1% to 5.3%, while the outflow dynamics from 7.1% decline for  an insignificant 0.2% growth. In particular, in the direction of  Russia there was a slowdown in growth in inflow from 20.1% to 1.4%,  with a reversal of the outflow trend from an upward 28.8% to a  downward 5.3%, and in the direction of the United States, a slowdown  in the growth of inflow from 23.8 % to 5% was accompanied by the  preservation of the rate of decline in outflow at the level of 2.2%.

To note, the March forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia  foreshadowed an increase in the net inflow of private transfers in  the range of 7-9% for 2021. The Central Bank determined its forecast  by the expected revitalization of the Russian economy and a partial  recovery of seasonal labor migration as a result of the gradual  relaxation of restrictive measures. According to the Central Bank of  Armenia, the high level of remittances from the United States will  continue. But recall that on June 15, the Central Bank of Armenia  intends to update the forecast for 2021, and, judging by the recent  statement of the head of the Central Bank, GDP growth expectations  will be improved from the previously announced 1.4% to a higher  level, in connection with which the forecast ranges will be revised  for other indicators. Among the factors stimulating positive  expectations, the head of the Central Bank named a sharp increase in  private transfers to Armenia, mainly due to the high activity of  remittances from the United States.