Wednesday, June 30 2021 12:13

ArmInfo.According to the new forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the unemployment rate in 2021 will decrease to 17.9% (from the actual 18.1% in 2020), which is due to higher rates of productivity growth. And in the medium term,  this indicator will decrease annually by 0.3-0.4 percentage points  and will reach 17.2% by the end of the period.

This forecast is given in the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Program for the II quarter of 2021, published at the end of June, where it was noted that the  forecast for GDP for 2021 was improved to a higher growth of 4.6%  from the previously expected 1.4%.

In the short term, the inflationary impact on the labor market will  remain, but in the medium term, this impact will be gradually  neutralized, in parallel with the acceleration of economic growth and  recovery of productivity.

According to the Central Bank of Armenia, in the private sector,  nominal wages will increase by almost 9.7% in 2021, which is due to  the duration of the correct declaration of wages by business  entities, and a slight increase in wages in parallel with the  recovery of private demand. Starting from 2022 and in the medium  term, the growth of nominal wages in the private sector is projected  by almost 6.5%, in line with the development of the economy, labor  productivity and inflation behavior.

According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, in  2020 the average annual unemployment rate in Armenia was 18.1%,  against 17.9% in 2019. It is pertinent to note that since 2019, the  unemployment rate has been calculated using a new methodology without  taking into account those employed in the household, in accordance  with which the indicators have also been recalculated in comparable  dynamics. In this regard, the Central Bank also began to indicate the  unemployment rate in its forecasts, already calculated according to  the new methodology.

According to statistics, as of January 1, 2021, according to the new  method, the number of the employed population in Armenia amounted to  991 thousand people (with an annual decline of 1.9%) or 47.3% of the  economically active population (against 48.3% in 2019). And as of  that date 218.6 thousand people were unemployed, with an annual  decline of 1%.