ArmInfo.According to the new forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the unemployment rate in 2021 will decrease to 17.9% (from the actual 18.1% in 2020), which is due to higher rates of productivity growth. And in the medium term, this indicator will decrease annually by 0.3-0.4 percentage points and will reach 17.2% by the end of the period.
This forecast is given in the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Program for the II quarter of 2021, published at the end of June, where it was noted that the forecast for GDP for 2021 was improved to a higher growth of 4.6% from the previously expected 1.4%.
In the short term, the inflationary impact on the labor market will remain, but in the medium term, this impact will be gradually neutralized, in parallel with the acceleration of economic growth and recovery of productivity.
According to the Central Bank of Armenia, in the private sector, nominal wages will increase by almost 9.7% in 2021, which is due to the duration of the correct declaration of wages by business entities, and a slight increase in wages in parallel with the recovery of private demand. Starting from 2022 and in the medium term, the growth of nominal wages in the private sector is projected by almost 6.5%, in line with the development of the economy, labor productivity and inflation behavior.
According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, in 2020 the average annual unemployment rate in Armenia was 18.1%, against 17.9% in 2019. It is pertinent to note that since 2019, the unemployment rate has been calculated using a new methodology without taking into account those employed in the household, in accordance with which the indicators have also been recalculated in comparable dynamics. In this regard, the Central Bank also began to indicate the unemployment rate in its forecasts, already calculated according to the new methodology.
According to statistics, as of January 1, 2021, according to the new method, the number of the employed population in Armenia amounted to 991 thousand people (with an annual decline of 1.9%) or 47.3% of the economically active population (against 48.3% in 2019). And as of that date 218.6 thousand people were unemployed, with an annual decline of 1%.
