ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia improved the forecast for the growth of the net inflow of private transfers for 2021 to 15-18% from the previous 7-9%. This forecast is given in the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Program (MP) for the II quarter of 2021, published at the end of June, where it was noted that the forecast for GDP for 2021 was improved to a higher growth of 4.6% from the previously expected 1.4%.
The Central Bank notes that the revitalization of the Russian economy and the gradual removal of covid restrictive measures have restored seasonal labor migration, in connection with which a higher growth in remittances is expected. In parallel with this, according to the Central Bank's estimates, the significant activity of transfers from the USA will remain. According to the Central Bank of Armenia, the net inflow of transfers from individuals jumped in January-April 2021 by 80% per annum (from a 19% decline a year earlier), which was largely supported by a multi-fold increase in remittances from the United States, with a moderate increase in transfers from Russia ... In total, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia turned the annual dynamics in January-April 2021 towards 29.1% growth, amounting to $ 573.5 million. A similar improvement in the trend was observed in the outflow of transfers - a reversal towards 12% growth, with collateral volume of $ 370.3 million. In the inflow, the share of Russia, despite the decline, continues to dominate at the level of 38% (January-April 2021), while increasing in the outflow to 32.7%, while the share of the United States in the inflow and outflow increased to 29% and 15.4%, respectively. And in 2020, the net inflow of individual transfers to Armenia increased by 14% - to $ 574.3 million (against a 15.5% decline in 2019), which was supported by a 50-fold growth in the net inflow of remittances from the United States, while the net inflow of transfers from Russia decreased by 42.1%. The gap between the inflow and outflow of transfers in the Armenia-Russia direction decreased over five years from 4 to 2 times, while in the Armenia-USA direction this gap increased from 2 to 3 times.
The inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia reversed the annual dynamics in 2020 towards a 6% decline from 9.7% growth in 2019, exceeding $ 1.8 billion. A more noticeable deterioration in the trend was also observed in the outflow of transfers - a reversal from 22.4% growth to 12.9% decline, the volume of which amounted to $ 1.3 billion. In the inflow, Russia's share decreased in 2020 to 45% from 54% in 2019 (against 59% in 2018), while increasing in outflow - from 29% to 36% (against 40% in 2018). And the share of the United States in the inflow, on the contrary, increased in y-o-y terms from 14% to 25% (versus 13% in 2018), while decreasing in the outflow from 19% to 13% (versus 16% in 2018).
