ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia improved its forecast for 2021 on foreign trade, expecting an increase in exports by 7-9% and imports by 5-7%, against the previously forecast modestly rising 1-3% for exports and descending 2-4% for imports.
This is stated in the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Program for the II quarter of 2021, published at the end of June, in which the forecast for GDP growth for 2021 was improved to 4.6% from the previously projected 1.4%. The ratio of the current account deficit to GDP in 2021, according to the new forecast of the Central Bank, will be in the range of 1-3% (against the previously forecasted 2-4%). And in the medium term, in parallel with the recovery of the global and domestic economies, as well as in conditions of relative stability of world prices, the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP will gradually stabilize, approaching the estimated balanced level of 4-6%.
Note that, according to the RA Statistical Committee, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January- December 2020 decreased by 13.2% per annum - to $ 7.1 billion, in particular, the volume of exports sank by 3.9% - to $ 2.5 billion, while imports fell by 17.7% - up to $ 4.6 billion. In December 2020, compared to December 2019, the decrease in foreign trade turnover by 19.8% was provoked by a decline in imports by 29.6% with an increase in imports by 8.6%. This situation was recorded along with a decline in GDP for 2020 by 7.4%, and in December 2020 by December 2019 by 8.8%.
But already in January-May 2021, economic activity in Armenia increased by 4.3% against the background of an increase in foreign trade turnover by 11.6% due to a jump in exports by 20.8% and an increase in imports by 6.7%. And in May 2021 to May 2020, an increase in economic activity by 10.9% was accompanied by a tangible increase in foreign trade turnover by 35.3% due to an almost equal impressive growth in exports and imports - by 36.7% and 34.5%, respectively.
