ArmInfo.The forecast for the growth of Armenian GDP for 2021 is being revised upward - from 3.2%, stipulated in the law "On the state budget for 2021", to 6%, the acting Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan said on July 1 before a government meeting.
Pashinyan once again pointed to the successful course of ensuring tax revenues of the state treasury. So, following the results of the first half of the year, an over fulfillment of tax collections was recorded.
In particular, as the Chairman of the State Revenue Committee of Armenia Eduard Hovhannisyan said, for January-June 2021, the actual tax collections of the Armenian state treasury are 750.2 billion drams, instead of the planned figure of 683 billion drams. The adjusted program indicator for the reporting period, according to him, will make 697.7 billion drams. In this context, the over fulfillment for the first 6 months will amount to 52.5 billion drams.
The amount returned to enterprises and individuals (VAT, excise tax, interest for servicing a mortgage loan) amounted to about 84 billion drams. At the same time, as Hovhannisyan pointed out, this year an amount that exceeded the same indicator for 2020, 2019 and 2018 was returned- for 6 months of 2020, 65 billion drams were returned, in 2019 - 52 billion drams, and in 2018 - only 49 billion drams.
As the head of the State Revenue Conmittee explained, following the legislative changes in the total volume of tax collections, the share of excise payments (payments to the military insurance fund) increased, the net difference amounted to 9.2 billion drams. Thus, if we "neutralize" the impact of excise taxes and compare net income, then in 2021 the difference will be 53.8 billion drams, the chief tax officer said.
In addition, in the first half of the year, compared to the same period in 2020, the number of transactions has increased by 24 million units. Compared to the same period in 2019, the figure increased by 25 million units.
Acting Minister of Finance Atom Janjughazyan recalled that based on the results of tax collections for the first quarter of this year, adjustments were made and the figure recorded in the state budget increased from 1 trillion 440 billion drams to 1 trillion 480 billion drams, and then by another 30 billion drams, to 1 trillion 510 billion drams. However, these adjustments were related to the general annual plan, and not to quarterly or semi-annual expectations. Based on this, in the opinion of the chief financier, it will be possible to give estimates by the end of the year.
The head of the SRC retorted that on the basis of the adjustments made, expectations were also clarified for the six-month tax results, as a result of which the early indicator of 665 billion in the first 6 months increased to 683 billion drams.
Acting Minister of Economy of Armenia Vahan Kerobyan, in turn, added that the export results are "very good". So, as pointed out by Kerobyan, as of the moment, the export of apricots amounted to 21 thousand tons, against last year's 7.2 thousand tons, and for the whole of 2020 19,700 tons were exported. By the end of the year, the Ministry of Economy hopes to exceed last year's annual figure by 50-70%. In general, the export of agricultural products has already doubled the figure for 2020 for the same period.
To note, economic growth in the state budget for 2021 is provided at 3.2%, and inflation is set at 4% (+/- 1.5%). The Central Bank of Armenia yesterday improved its forecast for GDP growth for 2021 to 4.6% (from 1.4% previously projected), relying on relatively high upward rates in the industrial and service sectors. According to the updated forecast of the World Bank, GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 will be 3.4%, accelerating to 4.3% in 2022 and 5.3% in 2023. Moreover, in the sectoral breakdown, the WB expects accelerated growth in 2021-2022 in the agricultural sector - from 1.3% to 2.2%, in the industrial sector - from 1.2% to 2.4%, in the service sector - from 5.1% to 5. 8%.
The economic decline in Armenia at the end of 2020 amounted to 7.4% amid a global GDP decline of 3.3%. Average inflation for the reporting period was 1.2%, deflator - 1.9%. The deficit exceeded the planned level of 2.3% of GDP, or by about 161 billion drams, reaching 334 billion drams, or 5.4% of GDP, against 63.9 billion drams in 2019 (an increase of 4.4 p.p.).
