ArmInfo. In Armenia, in January-May 2021 economic activity increased by 4.3% per annum (against a 3.9% decline a year earlier), accompanied by an increase in exports and the growth of imports. In May of this year, by May 2020, economic activity increased by 10.9% (against a decline of 12.8% a year earlier), while demonstrating an increase of 2% in May 2021 alone (against 13.3% growth in May 2020).
According to the final data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the growth of economic activity in January-May 2021 was largely determined by the construction sector - by 14.3% and the trade sector - by 7.4%, and to a lesser extent - by the industrial sector by 2.3%, the energy complex by 2% and the service sector by 0.9%. A year earlier, in January-May 2020, the construction sector, the trade sector and the service sector fell into recession - by 23.4%, 10.8% and 4.2%, respectively, and only the industrial sector and the energy complex remained in growth by 2.4% and 8.3%, respectively. In January-May 2021, the industrial product price index compared to the same period in 2019 increased by 9%, in May 2021 compared to May 2020 - by 12.5%, and in May 2021 alone - by 1%. A year earlier, in similar periods, almost the same dynamics was recorded, but the indicators were much lower: in January- May 2020, the industrial product price index in comparison with the same period of 2019 increased by 0.3%, in May 2020 to May 2019 - by 1.1 %, and in May 2020 alone decreased by 0.3%.
On a monthly terms (for May 2021), the decisive impetus to the growth of economic activity was given by the construction sector with an increase in volume by 17.9% (against an increase of 3.1 times in May 2020), followed by trade in terms of growth rates - by 6% ( against an increase of 33.3% in May 2020), the industrial sector - by 3.4% (against an increase of 11.9% in May 2020), and the service sector - by 3.4% (against an increase of 0.8% in May 2020). The energy complex remained in decline, accelerating to 12.9% from 2% a year earlier.
On a y-o-y terms (May 2021 to May 2020), growth in economic activity was observed in all industries, except for the energy complex, which accelerated the decline to 3.1%. Thus, the trade sector increased its turnover by 17.6%, the service sector increased its volumes by 17.3%, the industrial sector - by 7.9%, the construction sector - by 0.5%. A year earlier, in May 2020 to May 2019, there was a decline in all industries: construction - 27%, services - 19.4%, trade sector - 18.4%, industrial sector - 3.9%, energy complex - 0.1%.
According to statistics in January-May 2021, the absolute leadership is held by the trading sector with a volume of 1.2 trillion drams ($ 2.3 billion). The second place is held by the industrial sector - 840.7 billion drams ($ 1.6 billion), the third place is taken by the service sector - 703.1 billion drams ($ 1.3 billion). The fourth place was traditionally occupied by agriculture, but due to the lack of data, this place was taken by the construction sector - 94.5 billion drams ($ 180.4 million). The volume of electricity generation amounted to 3310.3 million kWh in January-May 2021, of which only in May - 557.3 million kWh.
At the same time, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-May 2021 amounted to 1.5 trillion drams ($ 2.9 billion) with a y-o-y growth of 11.6%. In its structure, the volume of exports increased on a y-o-y terms by 20.8% to 567.4 billion drams ($ 1.1 billion), and imports - by 6.7% to 931.8 billion drams ($ 1.8 billion). In May 2021 alone, foreign trade turnover increased by 3.9% due to an increase in exports by 7.9% with an increase in imports by 1.5%, and compared to May 2020, an increase in foreign trade turnover by 35.3% was almost equally provoked by the growth of exports by 36.7% and imports by 34.5%. A year earlier, in January-May 2020, foreign trade turnover decreased by 11.2% per annum due to a decline in imports by 12.8% and exports by 8.1%, and the May increase in foreign trade turnover by 13% was due to an upward trend in exports by 30.7% with an increase in imports by 4.3%, compared to May 2019, the decline in foreign trade turnover by 17.3% was largely due to a decline in imports by 21.8%, rather than exports by 8.7%.
The average calculated AMD exchange rate in May 2020 was 521.35 AMD / $ 1, and in January-May 2020 - 523.87 AMD / $ 1, against 484.12 AMD / $ 1 May 2020 and 483.95 AMD / $ 1 in January-May 2020.
To note, according to the forecast of the World Bank (WB) updated in June, GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 will be 3.4%. In terms of Armenia's foreign trade, the WB forecasts export and import growth by 8.7% and 8.3% for 2021, respectively. In its May forecast, the IMF expected GDP growth by 1% in Armenia for 2021. The new forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia (June) foreshadows GDP growth in 2021 by 4.6%, export growth by 7-9% and imports by 5-7%. According to statistics, the GDP of Armenia in 2020 decreased by 7.4% - to 6.2 trillion drams (against an increase of 7.6% - to 6.5 trillion drams in 2019).
