ArmInfo.Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-May 2021 amounted to $ 2.9 billion, with an improvement in y-o-y dynamics to 11.6% growth (from an 11.2% decline a year earlier). Moreover, higher growth was shown by exports (20.8%) than imports (6.7%), with a trend reversal from the downward 8.1% and 12.8%, respectively, a year earlier. According to the final data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the volume of exports reached $ 1.1 billion, and imports reached $ 1.8 billion.
In May 2021, the growth of foreign trade turnover slowed down from 12.9% to 3.9%, due to the same slowdown in export growth - from 11.9% to 7.9%, and imports - from 13.6% to 1.5%. And in May 2021, compared with May 2020, the growth of foreign trade turnover by 35.3% was provoked by an almost identical increase in exports by 36.7% and imports by 34.5%, against a decline in all three indicators a year earlier - exports by 8.7 %, imports by 21.8%, foreign trade turnover by 17.3%.
The negative foreign trade balance decreased in January-May 2021 by 9.8% per annum (against a 17.7% decline in the same period of 2020), amounting to $ 694.9 million. Moreover, the negative foreign trade balance of Armenia with the EAEU countries amounted to $ 308.6 million, having decreased on an a y-o-y terms by 14.2% against the background of an increase in exports by 31% with an increase in imports by 3.4%. And the negative balance of foreign trade of Armenia with the EU countries amounted to $ 125 million, decreasing in y-o-y terms by 4.1% as a result of improving the dynamics of exports and imports upward by 24% and 12.2%, respectively.
To note, according to the March forecast of the WB, the growth of exports of goods and services from Armenia in 2021 will amount to 8.7% with an acceleration of rates to 12.2% in 2022, and the growth of imports will accelerate from 8.3% in 2021 to 9.2% in 2022, against the actual decline in 2020 of exports by 3.9% and imports by 17.7%. The WB forecast current account deficit in Armenia at 4.8% of GDP in 2021 with an increase to 5.5% of GDP in 2022. According to the IMF's April forecast for Armenia, export volumes will reach $ 4.1 billion in 2021, with a further increase in 2022 to $ 4.8 billion, while import volumes are expected at $ 5.6 billion in 2021 and $ 6.4 billion in 2022. The ratio of the current account deficit to GDP, according to the IMF forecast, will increase in 2021 to 6.7% of GDP, and will decrease in 2022 to only 6.6%. The updated forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2021 in June foreshadows the growth of exports by 7-9% and imports by 5-7% in foreign trade, and the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP will be in the range of 1-3%.
