CBA: Net inflow of transfers from individuals increased by 89% per  annum in Jan-May 2021 

ArmInfo. The net inflow of transfers from individuals in January-May 2021, increased by 89% per annum (from a 23.4% decline a year earlier) - to $ 281.5 million,  which is largely supported by the continuing multiply increase in  remittances from the United States. This is evidenced by the data of  the RA Central Bank.

Thus, the inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia from the  United States in January-May 2021 increased by 99% (from a scanty  1.1% a year earlier), amounting to $ 212 million, along with which  the trend of the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the United  States changed from the decline 42.2%  by 32% $ 77.6 million growth.  As a result, the net inflow of transfers from individuals from the  United States increased 2.8-fold - to $ 134.4 million.

At the same time, money transfers in the direction of Russia also  increased. In particular, the inflow of transfers from Russia to  Armenia in January-May 2021 changed the y-o-y dynamics from 31%  decline to 19.3% growth, which was also observed in the outflow of  transfers from Armenia to Russia - from 24.4% a decline of 15.2%  growth. This led the trend of the net inflow of transfers from Russia  to an upward 24.2% in January-May 2021 from a downward 37.7% in  January-May 2020. As a result, in January-May 2021 the inflow of  transfers from Russia amounted to $ 289.7 million, and the outflow to  the Russian Federation - $ 153.6 million, which formed a net inflow  in this direction at the level of $ 136.1 million.

In total, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia in  January-May 2021 changed the y-o-y dynamics towards 37% growth from a  22.5% decline in January-May 2020, amounting to $ 748.4 million.  A  similar improvement in the trend was observed in the outflow of  transfers - from a 22.1% decline to 17.6% growth, with a volume of $  466.9 million. As a result, the y-o-y trend of net inflow of  transfers to Armenia also changed from a decline to a significant  growth.

In the inflow, the share of Russia decreased in January-May 2021 to  38.7% from 44.5% in January-May 2020 (against 50% in January-May  2019), and decreased in the outflow - from 33.6% to 32.9 % (against  34.6% in January-May 2019). And the share of the United States in the  inflow, on the contrary, increased on a y-o-y terms from 19.5% to  28.3% (against 15% in January-May 2019), having also increased in the  outflow from 14.8% to 16.6% (against 20% in January-May 2019).  

On a monthly terms, the net inflow of transfers to Armenia slowed  down growth from April 12.5% to 5.6% in May, as a result of a  slowdown in the upward trend in inflows from 5.3% to 4.1%, while the  outflow growth accelerated from 0.2% to 3%. In particular, in the  direction of Russia there was an acceleration of growth in inflow  from 1.4% to 13.2%, with an acceleration of the decline in outflow  from 5.3% to 7.5%, and in the direction of the United States a change  of the dynamics of inflow from 5% growth a 4.1% decline was  accompanied by a sharp exit from the 2.2% decline to a 56.2% increase  in the outflow trend.  A

s a result, the net inflow of transfers from Russia increased by  38.7% in May, while from the USA, on the contrary, decreased by 27%.  

To note, in the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2021,  updated in June, expectations for an increase in the net inflow of  private transfers were improved to 15-18% (from the previously  projected 7- 9%). The Central Bank notes that the revitalization of  the Russian economy and the gradual lifting of antiquated restrictive  measures have restored seasonal labor migration, in connection with  which a higher growth in remittances is expected. In parallel with  this, according to the Central Bank's estimates, the significant  activity of transfers from the USA will remain.