ArmInfo. In H1 2021, the net inflow of transfers increased by 98.6% per annum (from a 16.3% decline a year earlier) - to $ 382.9 million, which is largely supported by the continuing increase by several times in remittances from the United States, as well as recovering growth transfers from Russia. This is evidenced by the data of the RA Central Bank.
Thus, the inflow of individual transfers to Armenia from the United States in H1 2021 increased by 84.5% (from a moderate 10.3% a year earlier), amounting to $ 260.1 million, along with which the trend of the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the United States turned from a 49.6% decline to a 41.3% growth - to $ 92.3 million. As a result, the net inflow of transfers from individuals from the United States increased 2.2-fold - to $ 167.8 million.
At the same time, money transfers in the direction of Russia also increased. In particular, the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in H1 2021 reversed the y-o-y dynamics from 28.6% decline to 18.3% growth, at the same time, the trend of the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the RF remained in the decline with a slowdown from 9.2% to 0.5%. This led the trend of the net inflow of transfers from Russia to an upward 46.1% in H1 2021 from a downward trend of 45.8% in H1 2020. As a result, the inflow of transfers from Russia in H1 2021 amounted to $ 375.04 million, and the outflow to the Russian Federation - $ 188.3 million, which formed a net inflow in this direction at the level of $ 186.77 million.
In total, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia turned the y-o-y dynamics in H1 2021 towards 32.5% growth from a 17.4% decline in H1 of 2020, amounting to $ 948.2 million. A similar improvement in the trend was observed in the outflow of transfers - a reversal from 17.8% decline to 8.1% growth, with a volume of $ 565.3 million. As a result, the y-o-yl trend of net inflow of transfers to Armenia also reversed from decline to significant growth.
The share of Russia in the inflow in the H1 2021 decreased to 39.6% from 44.3% in H1 2020 (against 51.3% H1 2019), having also decreasing in the outflow- from 36.2% to 33.3% (against 32.7% in H12019). And the share of the United States in the inflow, on the contrary, increased on a y-o-y terms from 19.7% to 27.4% (against 14.7% in H1 2019), having also increasing in the outflow from 12.5% to 16.3% ( against 20.4% in H1 2019).
To note, in the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2021, updated in June, expectations for an increase in the net inflow of private transfers were improved to 15-18% (from the previously projected 7- 9%). The Central Bank notes that the revitalization of the Russian economy and the gradual removal of antiquated restrictive measures have restored seasonal labor migration, in connection with which a higher growth in remittances is expected. In parallel with this, according to the Central Bank's estimates, the significant activity of transfers from the USA will remain.
