ArmInfo.Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-June 2021 amounted to $ 3.6 billion, with an improvement in y-o-y dynamics to 13.4% growth (from a 10.7% decline a year earlier). Moreover, higher growth was shown by exports (23.3%) than imports (7.9%), with the trend emerging from the downward 6.5% and 12.9%, respectively, a year earlier. According to the final data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the volume of exports reached $ 1.4 billion, and imports- $ 2.2 billion.
In June 2021, the growth of foreign trade turnover slowed down from 3.9% to 1.9%, due to a deterioration in the dynamics of imports from 1.5% growth to 4.5% decline, while export growth accelerated from 7.9% to 12.2%. And in June 2021, compared to June 2020, the growth of foreign trade turnover by 20.1% was mainly due to an increase in exports by 33% with a moderate increase in imports by 12.1%, against a decline in all three indicators a year earlier - exports by 0, 5%, imports by 15.2%, foreign trade turnover by 10.2%.
In H1 2021, the negative foreign trade balance decreased by 11% per annum (against a 20.1% decline in the same period of 2020), amounting to $ 812.7 million. Moreover, the negative balance of Armenia's foreign trade with the EAEU countries amounted to $ 372.7 million, decreasing in y-o-y terms by 11.7% against the background of a jump in exports by 35.6% with an increase in imports by 7.2%. And the negative balance of Armenia's foreign trade with the EU countries amounted to $ 118.4 million, decreasing on a y-o- y terms by 27.4% as a result of improving the dynamics of exports and imports towards growth by 39.5% and 10.5%, respectively.
In H1 2021, the main buyers of Armenian goods are Russia - 26.5% in exports, China - 16.3%, Switzerland - 11.7%, Bulgaria - 7.6% and the Netherlands - 5.2%. The main suppliers of imported products to Armenia are Russia - 33.3% in total imports, China - 14.6%, Iran - 8.7%, Italy - 4.6% and Germany - 4.4%.
All export items in the first half of the year showed growth, except for machines / apparatus, leather / fur products, products made of stone, gypsum, cement, products made of precious metals, oils of vegetable and animal origin, the dynamics of which is still in decline (53.7-7 , 6%). The leading item of Armenian export are mineral products - an increase of 38.8% to $ 529.2 million, the second in terms of export volume - are prepared food products - an increase of 4.6% to $ 257.1 million, the export of base metals and products from them are in the 3rd place - an increase of 36.7% to $ 158.7 million, in the 4th place precious metals and products from them - a decline of 13.5% to $ 138.4 million, and in the5th place- the products of plant origin - an increase of 58.4% to $ 84.1 million.
In imports, the leading items showed more modest dynamics: the leading item - mineral products - increased by 12.2% to $ 399 million, machinery / equipment / mechanisms - an increase by 6% to $ 368 million, chemical products - a decline by 0.6% to $ 198.6 million , finished food products - a decline of 6.9% to $ 174.9 million, base metals and products from them - an increase of 2.1% to $ 158.3 million, textiles - an increase of 19.6% to $ 119.3 million. Export of chemical products increased by 20 % per annum - up to $ 15.9 million.
To note, according to the March forecast of the World Bank, the growth of exports of goods and services from Armenia in 2021 will amount to 8.7% with an acceleration of rates to 12.2% in 2022, and the growth of imports will accelerate from 8.3% in 2021 to 9.2% in 2022, against the actual decline in 2020 of exports by 3.9% and imports by 17.7%. The WB forecast current account deficit in Armenia at 4.8% of GDP in 2021 with an increase to 5.5% of GDP in 2022. According to the IMF's April forecast for Armenia, export volumes will reach $ 4.1 billion in 2021, with a further increase in 2022 to $ 4.8 billion, while import volumes are expected at $ 5.6 billion in 2021 and $ 6.4 billion in 2022. The ratio of the current account deficit to GDP, according to the IMF forecast, will increase in 2021 to 6.7% of GDP, and will decrease in 2022 to only 6.6%. The Central Bank's forecast for 2021, updated in June, foreshadows the growth of exports by 7.7% and imports by 6.2% in foreign trade, and the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP will be 1.6%.
