ArmInfo. In Armenia, economic activity in H1 2021 increased by 5% per annum (against a 4.7% decline a year earlier), which is accompanied by an increase in exports and a rise in imports. In June of this year, by June 2020, economic activity increased by 8% (against a decline of 12.8% a year earlier), while in June 2021 alone it accelerated growth to 12% from May 2% (against a less noticeable acceleration of growth in May 2020 from 13.3 % to 14.8%).
According to the final data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the growth of economic activity in January-June 2021 was largely determined by the construction sector - by 10.8% and the trade sector - by 8%, the agricultural sector - by 6.8%, and to a lesser extent - by the service sector by 2.7%, the industrial sector - by 2.1% and the energy complex - by 0.5%. A year earlier, in January-June 2020, the construction sector, the trade sector and the service sector were in decline - by 23.4%, 11.1% and 6.4%, respectively, and only the energy complex, the agricultural sector and the industrial sector remained in growth by 4.4%, 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively.
In January-June 2021 compared to the same period in 2019, the industrial product price index increased by 10%, in June 2021 compared to June 2020 - by 15.5%, and in June 2021 alone - by 3.1% (against May growth by one%). A year earlier, in similar periods, almost the same dynamics was recorded, but the indicators were much lower: in January-June 2020 in comparison with the same period of 2019 the industrial product price index increased by 0.7%, in June 2020 to June 2019 - by 2.6%, and in May 2020 alone increased by 0.5% (against a decrease of 0.3% in May).
On a monthly terms (for June 2021), the decisive impetus to the growth of economic activity was given by the construction sector with an increase in volume by 21.9% (against growth by 21.6% in June 2020), followed by trade in terms of growth rates - by 7.2 % (against an increase of 14.3% in June 2020), and the service sector - by 3.9% (against an increase of 8.2% in June 2020). The industrial sector worsened the monthly dynamics to 0.9% decline (from 6.3% growth in June 2020). And the energy complex lingered in recession, with an acceleration in June 2021 to 8.2% from 3.4% in the same month of 2020.
On a y-o-y terms (June 2021 to June 2020), growth in economic activity was observed in all industries, except for the energy complex, which slowed down the decline to 8%. Thus, the service sector increased its volumes by 12%, the trade sector increased its turnover by 10.3%, the industrial sector and the construction sector - by the same 1.3%. A year earlier, in June 2020, by June 2019, there was a decline in all industries: construction - 23.3%, services - 15.9%, trade sector - 12.4%, industrial sector - 2.4%, energy complex - 13.7 %.
According to statistics in January-June 2021, the absolute leadership is held by the trade sector with a volume of 1.5 trillion drams ($ 2.8 billion). The second place is held by the industrial sector - 1.04 trillion drams ($ 1.99 billion), the third place is taken by the service sector - 861.7 billion drams ($ 1.7 billion). The fourth place is traditionally occupied by agriculture - 277.99 billion drams ($ 532.5 million), and the fifth is occupied by the construction sector - 125.6 billion drams ($ 240.6 million). In January-June 2021, the volume of electricity generation amounted to 3822 million kWh, of which 511.7 million kWh in June alone.
At the same time, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-June 2021 amounted to 1.9 trillion drams ($ 3.6 billion) with a y-o-y growth of 13.4%. In its structure, the volume of exports increased on a y-o-y terms by 23.3% to 719.9 billion drams ($ 1.4 billion), and imports - by 7.9% to 1.2 trillion drams ($ 2.2 billion). In June 2021 alone, foreign trade turnover increased by 1.9% due to an increase in exports by 12.2% with a decline in imports by 4.5%, and compared to June 2020, an increase in foreign trade turnover by 20.1% was mainly due an increase in exports by 33%, rather than imports by 12.1%. A year earlier, in January-June 2020, foreign trade turnover decreased by 10.7% per annum due to a decline in imports by 12.9% and exports by 6.5%, and the June increase in foreign trade turnover by 13.7% was provoked by an upward trend exports by 14.7% with an increase in imports by 13.1%, compared to June 2019, the decline in foreign trade turnover by 10.2% was largely due to a decline in imports by 15.2%, rather than exports by 0.5%.
The average calculated AMD exchange rate was 513.09 AMD / $ 1 in June 2020, and 522.08 AMD / $ 1 in January-June 2020, against 481.27 AMD / $ 1 in June 2020 and 483.50 AMD / $ 1 in January- June 2020 To note, according to the forecast of the World Bank (WB) updated in June, GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 will amount to 3.4%. In terms of Armenia's foreign trade, the World Bank predicts an increase in exports and imports by 8.7% and 8.3% for 2021, respectively. In its May forecast, the IMF expected GDP growth by 1% in Armenia for 2021. The new forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia (June) foreshadows GDP growth in 2021 by 4.6%, exports - by 7.7% and imports - by 6.2%. According to statistics, Armenia's GDP in 2020 decreased by 7.4% - to 6.2 trillion drams (against an increase of 7.6% - to 6.5 trillion drams in 2019), with a decline in exports by 3.9% and imports by 17. 7%.
