Wednesday, August 25 2021 12:34

ArmInfo. Economist, member of the  Hayastan Alliance ("Armenia" - Ed. note) Tadevos Avetisyan does not  believe in the feasibility of the economic program of the government  of Nikol Pashinyanan for 2021-2026. He stated this on August 25 at a  parliamentary meeting during the discussion of the Cabinet's program  for the next 5 years.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, presenting the government's program  for the next 5 years on August 18, said that for 2021-2026 the  Armenian government is committed to ensuring a minimum y-o-y economic  growth of 7%, and in the presence of favorable external economic  conditions - at the level of 9%.  According to the results of the  planned measures, the current unemployment rate of 17-18% should be  below 10%, the poverty level should be halved, extreme poverty should  be completely eliminated, and pensions (now the basic pension is 30  thousand drams) should be increased to meet the needs of the minimum  consumer basket (55 thousand drams). The size of the minimum wage  will also be increased from the current 68 thousand drams to 85  thousand drams. At the same time, the authorities promise by 2026 the  investment / GDP ratio will increase to at least 25%, the foreign  direct investment to GDP ratio - up to 6%. The growth of the total  factor productivity will be at least 5%.

"The same authorities in 2018 promised to ensure an annual GDP growth  of 9.5% on average by 2050, a boom in foreign investment," the  economist recalled. Meanwhile, if the actual growth of the Armenian  economy in 2017 was 7.5%, and in January-April 2018 (before the  "velvet revolution - ed.) - up to 9.5%, then after the arrival of the  new government, the growth rate slowed down and by by the end of the  year amounted to 5.6%, Avetisyan noted. 2019, according to him, was a  "golden era" for the Pashinyan government and the year was closed  with an increase of 7.6%, but already 2020 the republic's GDP  decreased by 7.4% - about 2.5 times larger than the world economy.

In addition, as the parliamentarian stressed, after 2018 there was a  "capital flight" from the country, which is one of the main factors  of economic growth. "Even in the same successful 2019 for the new  authorities, the inflow of foreign direct investment, compared with  the previous year, the indicator decreased by 0.4%, and the net  inflow of FDI - by all 42%. In 2020, the inflow of foreign direct  investment registered a negative indicator- in minus 7.1 billion  drams, and in 2021 the net inflow of FDI amounted to only 35 million  US dollars, instead of the promised billions. The dynamics of the  growth of public debt also limits the possibilities for future growth  of the Republic of Armenia, "he said.

Touching upon the promised growth of the minimum wage and pensions,  an increase in the welfare of the population, Avetisyan said that in  2019, poverty, even as a result of a change in methodology,  officially increased by 3 percentage points. "From 26.3% at the end  of 2019, the indicator, according to the WB, increased by 7  percentage points in 2020," said the MP- economist. In addition, if  from January 1, 2020, pensions increased by 7.8% on average, and the  minimum wage by 13 thousand drams, insecurity benefits remained at  the same level, then food prices, over the same period, increased by  13.1%, and the minimum consumer basket - up to 66,600 drams (per  month), the minimum food basket - up to 36 thousand drams.

In general, the economist does not see the conditions for the  implementation of the proposed program. "Due to the actions of the  authorities, the country faced the problem of existence. We are  offered situational solutions - without main and promising programs,  and therefore, I am of the opinion that any program they have proposed  is initially a failure," concluded Tadevos Avetisyan.