ArmInfo. Economist, member of the Hayastan Alliance ("Armenia" - Ed. note) Tadevos Avetisyan does not believe in the feasibility of the economic program of the government of Nikol Pashinyanan for 2021-2026. He stated this on August 25 at a parliamentary meeting during the discussion of the Cabinet's program for the next 5 years.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, presenting the government's program for the next 5 years on August 18, said that for 2021-2026 the Armenian government is committed to ensuring a minimum y-o-y economic growth of 7%, and in the presence of favorable external economic conditions - at the level of 9%. According to the results of the planned measures, the current unemployment rate of 17-18% should be below 10%, the poverty level should be halved, extreme poverty should be completely eliminated, and pensions (now the basic pension is 30 thousand drams) should be increased to meet the needs of the minimum consumer basket (55 thousand drams). The size of the minimum wage will also be increased from the current 68 thousand drams to 85 thousand drams. At the same time, the authorities promise by 2026 the investment / GDP ratio will increase to at least 25%, the foreign direct investment to GDP ratio - up to 6%. The growth of the total factor productivity will be at least 5%.
"The same authorities in 2018 promised to ensure an annual GDP growth of 9.5% on average by 2050, a boom in foreign investment," the economist recalled. Meanwhile, if the actual growth of the Armenian economy in 2017 was 7.5%, and in January-April 2018 (before the "velvet revolution - ed.) - up to 9.5%, then after the arrival of the new government, the growth rate slowed down and by by the end of the year amounted to 5.6%, Avetisyan noted. 2019, according to him, was a "golden era" for the Pashinyan government and the year was closed with an increase of 7.6%, but already 2020 the republic's GDP decreased by 7.4% - about 2.5 times larger than the world economy.
In addition, as the parliamentarian stressed, after 2018 there was a "capital flight" from the country, which is one of the main factors of economic growth. "Even in the same successful 2019 for the new authorities, the inflow of foreign direct investment, compared with the previous year, the indicator decreased by 0.4%, and the net inflow of FDI - by all 42%. In 2020, the inflow of foreign direct investment registered a negative indicator- in minus 7.1 billion drams, and in 2021 the net inflow of FDI amounted to only 35 million US dollars, instead of the promised billions. The dynamics of the growth of public debt also limits the possibilities for future growth of the Republic of Armenia, "he said.
Touching upon the promised growth of the minimum wage and pensions, an increase in the welfare of the population, Avetisyan said that in 2019, poverty, even as a result of a change in methodology, officially increased by 3 percentage points. "From 26.3% at the end of 2019, the indicator, according to the WB, increased by 7 percentage points in 2020," said the MP- economist. In addition, if from January 1, 2020, pensions increased by 7.8% on average, and the minimum wage by 13 thousand drams, insecurity benefits remained at the same level, then food prices, over the same period, increased by 13.1%, and the minimum consumer basket - up to 66,600 drams (per month), the minimum food basket - up to 36 thousand drams.
In general, the economist does not see the conditions for the implementation of the proposed program. "Due to the actions of the authorities, the country faced the problem of existence. We are offered situational solutions - without main and promising programs, and therefore, I am of the opinion that any program they have proposed is initially a failure," concluded Tadevos Avetisyan.
