ArmInfo. Economic activity in Armenia in January-July 2021, increased by 5.2% per annum (against a 5.7% decline a year earlier), accompanied by an accelerated growth in exports and imports. In July of this year, by July 2020, economic activity increased by 5.8% (against a decline of 10.2% a year earlier), while in July 2021 alone it slowed down growth to 7.4% from June 12%, which was also observed in July 2020 - to 9.4% from 14.8% in June.
According to the preliminary data of the RA Statistical Committee, the growth of economic activity in January-July 2021 was largely determined by the construction sector - by 8.8% and the trade sector - by 7.5%, and to a lesser extent by the service sector - by 4.4%, the industrial sector - by 2.1% and energy complex - by 0.1%. Since 2019, in the reports of the Statistical Committee, data on the agricultural sector are published only on a quarterly terms. A year earlier, in January-July 2020, the construction sector, the trade sector and the service sector were in decline - by 22.6%, 10.9% and 9.2%, respectively, and only the energy complex and the industrial sector remained in growth by 3.4% and 1.3%, respectively.
The industrial product price index in January-July 2021 compared to the same period in 2020 increased by 10.1%, in July 2021 compared to July 2020 - by 10.6%, while in July 2021 alone it decreased by 3.3% (against June growth of 3.1%). A year earlier, in similar periods, almost the same dynamics was recorded, but the pace was noticeably more modest: the industrial product price index in January-July 2020 in comparison with the same period of 2019 increased by 1.1%, in July 2020 to July 2019 - by 3.7%. %, and in July 2020 alone- by 1%. On a monthly terms, (for July 2021), the decisive impetus to the growth of economic activity was given by the energy complex with an increase in the volume of generated electricity by 23.5%, against the June decline by 8.2% and growth by 16.2% in July 2020. The construction sector showed relatively modest growth, with a slowdown to 12.1% from 21.9% in June (against an increase of 10.8% in July 2020). Then, in terms of growth rates, followed by trade - by 6.5% (against growth by 11.7% in July 2020), and the service sector - by 3.3% (against growth by 0.9% in July 2020). The industrial sector stagnated in July 2021, but at the same time it is appropriate to note that during the reporting month it was possible to reach this zero trend from the June 0.9% decline (against a weak 1.4% growth in July 2020).
On a y-o-y terms (July 2021 to July 2020), growth in economic activity was observed in all industries, except for the energy complex, which accelerated the decline to 2.2%. Thus, the service sector increased its volumes by 14.4%, the trade sector increased its turnover by 5.2%, the construction sector - by 2.2% and the industrial sector - by 1.7%. A year earlier, in July 2020 to July 2019, there was a decline in all industries: in the service sector - by 21.6%, in the construction sector - by 19.5%, in the trade sector - by 10.4%, in the industrial sector - by 2.3%, energy complex - by 2%.
According to statistics in January-July 2021, the absolute leadership is held by the trading sector with a volume of 1.8 trillion drams ($ 3.4 billion). The second place is held by the industrial sector - 1.2 trillion drams ($ 2.4 billion), the third place is taken by the service sector - 1.03 trillion drams ($ 1.98 billion). And, due to the lack of data on the agricultural sector, the construction sector is on the fourth place - 160.6 billion drams ($ 310.3 million). The volume of electricity generation in January-July 2021 amounted to 4454.1 million kWh, of which - 632.1 million kWh in July alone.
The average calculated AMD exchange rate in July 2021 was 490.87 AMD / $ 1, and in January-July 2021 - 517.62 AMD / $ 1, against 484.65 AMD / $ 1 - in July 2020 and 483.67 AMD / $ 1 - in January-July 2020.
To note, according to the forecast of the World Bank (WB) updated in June, GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 will be 3.4%. In terms of Armenia's foreign trade, the WB forecasts export and import growth by 8.7% and 8.3% for 2021, respectively. In its May forecast, the IMF expected GDP growth by 1% in Armenia for 2021. According to the new forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia (June) GDP growth in 2021 will be 4.6%. The same forecast report of the Central Bank notes that the highest growth rates will be in the service sector - 6.1% and the industrial sector - 4.5%, and relatively restrained in the agricultural sector - 2.3%, and the construction sector will only be able to significantly slow down the decline to 0 .2%. The Central Bank in the same report gives a new forecast for 2021 for the growth of exports and imports - by 7.7% and 6.2%, respectively. According to statistics, Armenia's GDP in 2020 decreased by 7.4% - to 6.2 trillion drams (against 7.6% growth - to 6.5 trillion drams in 2019), with a decline in exports by 3.9% and imports by 17. 7%.
