ArmInfo. In Armenia, economic activity in January-July 2021 increased by 5.3% per annum (against a 5.7% decline a year earlier), accompanied by an accelerated growth in exports and imports. In July of this year by July 2020, economic activity increased by 6.2% (against a decline of 10.2% a year earlier), while in July 2021 alone it slowed down to 7.5% from June 12%, which was also observed in July 2020 - to 9.4% from 14.8% in June.
According to the final data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the growth of economic activity in January-July 2021 was largely determined by the construction sector - by 8.8% and the trade sector - by 7.5%, and to a lesser extent by the service sector - by 4.5%, the industrial sector. - by 2.1% and energy complex - by 0.1%. Since 2019, data on the agricultural sector in the reports of the Statistical Committee are published only on a quarterly basis. A year earlier, in January-July 2020, the construction sector, the trade sector and the service sector were in decline - by 22.6%, 10.9% and 9.2%, respectively, and only the energy complex and the industrial sector remained in growth by 3.4% and 1.3%, respectively.
The industrial product price index increased in January-July 2021 compared to the same period in 2020 by 10.1%, in July 2021 compared to July 2020 - by 10.6%, while in July 2021 alone it decreased by 3.3% (against June growth of 3.1%). A year earlier, in similar periods, almost the same dynamics was recorded, but the pace was much more modest: the industrial product price index increased in January-July 2020 in comparison with the same period of 2019 by 1.1%, in July 2020 to July 2019- by 3.7%, but only in July 2020 - by 1%. In monthly terms (for July 2021), the decisive impetus to the growth of economic activity was given by the energy complex with a jump in the volume of generated electricity by 23.5%, against the June decline by 8.2% and growth by 16.2% in July 2020. The construction sector showed relatively modest growth, with a slowdown to 12.1% from 21.9% in June (against an increase of 10.8% in July 2020). Then, in terms of growth rates, followed by trade - by 6.5% (against growth by 11.7% in July 2020), and the service sector - by 3.1% (against growth by 0.9% in July 2020). The industrial sector stagnated in July 2021, but at the same time it is appropriate to note that during the reporting month it was possible to reach this zero trend from the June 0.9% decline (against a weak 1.4% growth in July 2020).
On an annualized basis (July 2021 to July 2020), growth in economic activity was observed in all industries, except for the energy complex, which accelerated the decline to 2.2%. Thus, the service sector increased its volumes by 14.4%, the trade sector increased its turnover by 5.2%, the construction sector - by 2.2% and the industrial sector - by 1.7%. A year earlier, in July 2020 to July 2019, there was a decline in all industries: in the service sector - by 21.6%, in the construction sector - by 19.5%, in the trade sector - by 10.4%, in the industrial sector - by 2.3%. , energy complex - by 2%.
According to statistics in January-July 2021, the absolute leadership is held by the trading sector with a volume of 1.8 trillion drams ($ 3.4 billion). The second position is held by the industrial sector - 1.2 trillion drams ($ 2.4 billion), the third place is taken by the service sector - 1.03 trillion drams ($ 1.98 billion). And, due to the lack of data on the agricultural sector, the construction sector is on the fourth position - 160.6 billion drams ($ 310.3 million). The volume of electricity generation amounted to 4454.1 million kWh in January-July 2021, of which only in July - 632.1 million kWh.
At the same time, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-July 2021 amounted to 2.2 trillion drams ($ 4.3 billion) with an annual growth of 15.1%. In its structure, the volume of exports increased on an annualized basis by 23.2% to 848.6 billion drams ($ 1.6 billion), and imports - by 10.6% to 1.4 trillion drams ($ 2.7 billion). In July 2021 alone, foreign trade turnover increased by 2.6% due to the exit of imports from the recession to the growth of 10.7%, with the reversal of the dynamics of exports from the growth of 9.1% decline. And in July 2021 compared to July 2020, the growth of foreign trade turnover by 22.9% was provoked by almost similar growth rates of exports and imports - by 23.8% and 22.4%, respectively. A year earlier, in January-July 2020, foreign trade turnover decreased by 11.3% per annum due to a decline in imports by 13.7% and exports by 6.4%, and the July increase in foreign trade turnover by 2.4% was provoked by an upward trend exports by 1.5% and imports by 2.9%, compared to July 2019, the decline in foreign trade turnover by 14.3% was largely due to a decline in imports by 18.6%, rather than exports by 5.9%.
The average calculated AMD exchange rate in July 2021 was 490.87 AMD / $ 1, and in January-July 2021 - 517.62 AMD / $ 1, against 484.65 AMD / $ 1 - in July 2020 and 483.67 AMD / $ 1 - in January-July 2020.
To note, according to the forecast of the World Bank (WB) updated in June, GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 will amount to 3.4%. In terms of Armenia's foreign trade, the WB forecasts export and import growth for 2021 by 8.7% and 8.3%, respectively. In its May forecast, the IMF expected GDP growth by 1% in Armenia for 2021. The new forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia (June) foreshadows GDP growth in 2021 by 4.6%. The same forecast report of the Central Bank notes that the highest growth rates will be in the service sector - 6.1% and the industrial sector - 4.5%, and relatively restrained in the agricultural sector - 2.3%, and the construction sector will only be able to significantly slow down the decline to 0 , 2%. The Central Bank in the same report gives a new forecast for 2021 on the growth of exports and imports - by 7.7% and 6.2%, respectively. According to statistics, Armenia's GDP in 2020 decreased by 7.4% - to 6.2 trillion drams (against 7.6% growth - to 6.5 trillion drams in 2019), with a decline in exports by 3.9% and imports by 17,7%).
