ArmInfo.Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-July 2021 amounted to $ 4.3 billion, with an improvement in y-o-y dynamics to 15.1% growth (from an 11.3% decline a year earlier).
Moreover, higher growth was shown by exports (23.2%) than imports (10.6%), with the trend emerging from the downward 6.4% and 13.7%, respectively, a year earlier. According to the final data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the volume of exports reached $ 1.6 billion, while imports reached $ 2.7 billion.
In July 2021, the growth of foreign trade turnover accelerated from 1.9% to 2.6%, due to an improvement in the dynamics of imports from a 4.5% decline to 10.7% growth, with a reversal of the export trend from 12.2% - growth by 9.1% decline. And in July 2021, compared with July 2020, the growth of foreign trade turnover by 22.9% was almost equally provoked by the growth of exports by 23.8% and imports by 22.4%, against a decline in all three indicators a year earlier - exports by 5.9%, imports by 18.6%, foreign trade turnover by 14.3%.
In January-July 2021, the negative foreign trade balance decreased by 5% per annum (against a 21% decline in the same period of 2020), amounting to $ 1.02 billion. Moreover, the negative balance of Armenia's foreign trade with the EAEU countries amounted to $ 438.8 million, decreasing in y-o-y terms by 7.5% against the background of an increase in exports by 34.4% with an increase in imports by 10.3%. And the negative balance of foreign trade of Armenia with the EU countries amounted to $ 142.8 million, decreasing in y-o-y terms by 27.4% as a result of the improvement in the dynamics of exports and imports towards growth by 41.1% and 11.1%, respectively.
The main buyers of Armenian goods in January-July 2021 in exports are Russia - 27.5%, China - 15.2%, Switzerland - 11.7%, Bulgaria - 7.9% and Iraq - 4.9%. The main suppliers of imported products to Armenia in total imports are Russia - 33%, China - 14.7%, Iran - 8.5%, Italy - 4.6% and Germany - 4.2%.
All export items in January-July showed growth, except for machines / apparatus, leather / fur products, products made of stone, gypsum, cement, products made of precious metals, oils of vegetable and animal origin, the dynamics of which is still in decline (1.5- 50.5%). The leading item of Armenian export - mineral products - increased by 36.6% to $ 613.05 million, while the second in terms of export volume - prepared food products - increased by 5.8% to $ 309.4 million. The 3rd in terms of export - base metals and products from them - an increase of 32.2% to $ 178.7 million, the 4th -precious metals and products from them - a decline of 2.9% to $ 175.2 million, and the 5th- products of plant origin - an increase of 48.6% to $ 104.2 million.
In imports, the leading products showed more modest dynamics: the leading mineral products - grew by 15.1% to $ 483.3 million, machinery / equipment / mechanisms - increased by 1.9% to $ 428.1 million, chemical products - increased by 1.5% to $ 240.2 million, prepared food products- a decline of 0.2% to $ 217.2 million, base metals and products from them - an increase of 2.6% to $ 192.8 million, textile products - an increase of 25.5% to $ 147 million. Export of chemical products increased by 13.2% per annum - up to $ 18.6 million.
To note, according to the March forecast of the World Bank, the growth of exports of goods and services from Armenia in 2021 will amount to 8.7% with an acceleration of rates to 12.2% in 2022, and the growth of imports will accelerate from 8.3% in 2021 to 9.2% in 2022, against the actual decline in 2020 of exports by 3.9% and imports by 17.7%. The WB forecast current account deficit in Armenia at 4.8% of GDP in 2021 with an increase to 5.5% of GDP in 2022. According to the IMF's April forecast for Armenia, export volumes will reach $ 4.1 billion in 2021, with a further increase in 2022 to $ 4.8 billion, while import volumes are expected at $ 5.6 billion in 2021 and $ 6.4 billion in 2022. The ratio of the current account deficit to GDP, according to the IMF forecast, will increase to 6.7% in 2021, and will decrease in 2022 to 6.6% alone. The Central Bank's forecast for 2021, updated in June, foreshadows the growth of exports by 7.7% and imports by 6.2% in foreign trade, and the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP will be 1.6%.
