ArmInfo. In Jan-July 2021, the net inflow of transfers from individuals increased by 78.5% per annum (from a 1.2% decline a year earlier) - to $ 483.6 million, which is largely supported by the continuing rapid growth of remittances from the United States, as well as gaining momentum the growth of transfers from Russia. This is evidenced by the data of the RA Central Bank.
Thus, in Jan-July 2021, the inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia from the USA increased by 70.2% (from 22.1 a year earlier), amounting to $ 314 million, along with which the trend of the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the USA turned from a 54.8% decline to a 46.6% growth to $ 108 million. As a result, the net inflow of transfers from individuals from the United States increased by 86% to $ 206 million, but a year earlier the growth rate was much impressive - 11-fold (with the minus plus).
At the same time, money transfers in the direction of Russia also increased. In particular, in Jan-July 2021, the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia reversed the y-o-y dynamics from 28.2% decline to 16% growth, while the trend of the outflow of transfers from Armenia to Russia changed from a 0.9% growth to a 6.2% decline. This led the trend of net inflow of transfers from Russia in Jan-July 2021 to an upward 47.7% from a downward 49.2% in Jan-July 2020. As a result, the inflow of transfers from Russia in Jan- July 2021 amounted to $ 463.1 million, and the outflow to the Russian Federation - $ 220.4 million, which formed a net inflow in this direction at the level of $ 242.7 million. In total, in Jan-July 2021, the inflow of individual transfers to Armenia turned the y-o-y dynamics towards 28.3% growth from 15.3% decline in Jan-July 2020, amounting to $ 1.15 billion. A similar improvement in the trend was observed in the outflow of transfers - a change from a 20.3% decline to a 6.5% growth, with a volume of $ 662.9 million. As a result, the y-o-y trend of the net inflow of transfers to Armenia also changed from a decline to a significant growth. The share of Russia in terms of the inflow in Jan-July 2021, decreased to 40.4% from 44.7% in Jan-July 2020 (against 52.7% in Jan-July 2019), and decreased in terms of the outflow - from 37.8% to 33.2% (against 29.8% in Jan-July 2019). And the share of the United States in the inflow, on the contrary, increased on a y-o-y terms from 20.7% to 27.4% (against 14.3% in Jan-July 2019), having also increased in the outflow from 11.8% to 16.3% (against 20.9% in Jan-July 2019).
To note, in the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2021, updated in June, expectations for an increase in the net inflow of private transfers were improved to 15-18% (from the previously projected 7- 9%). The Central Bank states that Russia continues to lead in terms of volume of transfers to Armenia, however, the USA is in the lead in terms of growth rates. The Central Bank explains that this rapid growth is due to the stimulus checks provided by the US government to its citizens, a large part of which are representatives of the Armenian Diaspora. If there are packages that will be distributed among the states, where the number of counterparties connected with Armenia in economic terms is high, then naturally the volume of funds coming to the country from the United States will increase even more. In general, the Central Bank estimates the growth of the inflow of transfers to Armenia to be higher than expected. At the end of September, the Central Bank intends to once again update the forecast, in which, in all likelihood, expectations for the growth of transfers will be improved even more, especially since the new forecast for GDP growth for 2021 has already been improved to 5.4% from the previous 4.6 %.
