ArmInfo.Armenia's GDP at purchasing power parity increased 1.5- fold from USD 29 billion in 2014 to USD 42 billion in 2019. This was announced by the Assistant to the chairman of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) Iya Malkina at a briefing on September 29.
"We believe that this is a good indicator, and of course, among other things, integration influenced it," she said, noting that in 2020, for objective reasons, a decline in GDP to $ 39.4 billion was recorded. However, economic activity, according to Malkina, is gradually recovering, and by the end of 2021, the EEC expects a 4% growth in the Armenian economy.
In addition, it was noted that mutual trade with the EAEU countries has grown. Its share in the country's foreign trade in 2014 was 24%, in 2020 it increased to 34%, and in January-July 2021. - up to 35%. The volume in 2015 amounted to more than $ 256 million, in 2020 it increased to $ 710 million. Currently, the Commission is developing a methodology for assessing the effect of integration on the economies of the Union countries, which will make it possible to see the real effect of integration. According to Malkina, the EEC Department of Macroeconomic Policy has already made preliminary calculations of the total effect of integration on the EAEU economies in 2016 and 2020. "The data show that all the EAEU countries, including Armenia, have positive indicators," she said.
To note, the World Bank expects GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 at the level of 3.4%. In its June forecast, the EDB improved its expectations for GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 by only 0.9 p.p. - up to 4.2%. Moody's, in its August report on Armenia's sovereign rating, predicted 4.5% growth in the country's real GDP in 2021. And an earlier (March) forecast of the Fitch rating agency predicted Armenia's real GDP growth by 3.2% in 2021. The Central Bank of Armenia turned out to be much more optimistic, with each quarterly update of the forecast, improving expectations for GDP growth for 2021 - from 1.4% in March to 4.6% in June, followed by an increase in September to 5.4%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) sharply improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 to 6.5% from the previous 1%, but warns that the downside risks remain elevated.
