ArmInfo. In the new forecast report of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2021, the unemployment rate was reduced to 15.7% from the previous 17.9% (against the actual 18.1% in 2020).
And even in the mid-term, this indicator will be below the pre-covid level, in particular, the 16-17% expected by the Central Bank will yield to the average annual level of 2019 of 17.9%. This forecast is given in the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Program for the third quarter of 2021, published at the end of September, where it was noted that the forecast for GDP for 2021 improved again to a higher growth of 5.4% from the previously expected 4.6%. The Central Bank draws attention to the fact that in the short term, weak inflationary pressure will emanate from the labor market, the gradual neutralization of which in the medium term will occur as a result of accelerated economic growth and recovery of productivity.
According to the Central Bank of Armenia, in the private sector, the growth rate of nominal wages in 2021 will remain at the current level - about 7.9%. And in the medium term, with inflation decreasing and stabilizing near the target threshold, the nominal wages in the private sector will increase by 8%. By the end of 2021, due to the outstripping growth of wages in the private sector (in comparison with productivity growth), the growth of personnel costs at enterprises will slightly accelerate.
According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, in 2020 the average annual unemployment rate in Armenia was 18.1%, against 17.9% in 2019. And the combined rate of unemployment and potential labor force decreased in 2020 to 28.5% from 29% in 2019. It is pertinent to note that since 2019, the unemployment rate has been calculated using a new methodology without taking into account those employed in the household, in accordance with which the indicators have also been recalculated in comparable dynamics. In this regard, the Central Bank also began to indicate the unemployment rate in its forecasts, already calculated according to the new method.
According to statistics, as of January 1, 2021, according to the new method, the number of the employed population in Armenia amounted to 991 thousand people. (with an annual decline of 1.9%) or 47.3% of the economically active population (against 48.3% in 2019). And there were 218.6 thousand people unemployed on this date , with an annual decline of 1%.
