Thursday, October 7 2021 19:23
Karine Melikyan

Central Bank of Armenia: Net inflow of transfers from individuals for  8 months of 2021 exceeded the pre- covid volume 2-fold

Central Bank of Armenia: Net inflow of transfers from individuals for  8 months of 2021 exceeded the pre- covid volume 2-fold

ArmInfo.The net inflow of transfers from individuals in January- August 2021 accelerated the annual growth from 22.2% to 58.2%, amounting to $ 576.3 million and  exceeding the pre-covid period volume 2-fold. To a greater extent,  this is supported by the continuing tangible growth in remittances  from the United States, as well as by the intensification of  transfers from Russia. This is evidenced by the data of the RA  Central Bank.

Thus, the inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia from the  United States in January-August 2021 accelerated growth to 52% (from  35.5% a year earlier), amounting to $ 364.7 million, along with which  the trend of the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the United  States turned from 60.3% - the decline by 44.7% - to $ 123.9 million.  As a result, the net inflow of transfers from individuals from the  United States jumped by 56% - to $ 240.8 million, but a year earlier  the growth rates were much impressive - 6-fold (with the balance  changing from negative to positive).

At the same time, money transfers in the direction of Russia also  increased. In particular, the inflow of transfers from Russia to  Armenia in January-August 2021 reversed the annual dynamics from  27.7% decline to 13.4% growth, while the trend of the outflow of  transfers from Armenia to Russia reversed from 9% growth by 9.7%  decline. This led the trend of the net inflow of transfers from  Russia to an upward 45.4% in January-August 2021 from a downward  50.8% in January-August 2020. As a result, the volume of the inflow  of transfers from Russia in January-August 2021 amounted to $ 548.6  million, and the outflow to the Russian Federation - $ 254 million,  which formed a net inflow in this direction at the level of $ 294.6  million.

In total, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia turned  the annual dynamics in January-August 2021 towards 23.2% growth from  a 12% decline in January-August 2020, amounting to $ 1.3 billion. A  similar improvement in the trend was observed in the outflow of  transfers - reversal from 22.8% recession to 5.5% gain, securing $  763.8 million in volume.

In the inflow, the share of Russia decreased in January-August 2021  to 41% from 44.5% in January-August 2020 (against 54.2% in  January-August 2019), and decreased in the outflow - from 39% to  33.3% ( against 27.5% in January-August 2019). And the share of the  United States in the inflow, on the contrary, increased on an  annualized basis from 22.1% to 27.2% (against 14.3% in January-August  2019), having also increased in the outflow from 11.8% to 16.2%  (against 23% in January-August 2019).  To note, in the forecast of  the Central Bank of Armenia for 2021, updated in September,  expectations for an increase in the net inflow of private transfers  are even more improved - to 23-26% from the previous 15- 18% (against  the actual 14% growth in 2020). The Central Bank explains this by the  activation of the Russian economy and the gradual relaxation of  antiquated restrictive measures that have restored seasonal labor  migration, and the growth of remittances from labor migrants. In  parallel with this, according to the Central Bank's estimates, the  growth of transfers from the USA will be higher, given the more  positive than expected current development. In the new forecast, the  Central Bank has once again improved its expectations for GDP growth  in 2021 - to 5.4% from the previous 4.6%.    


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