S&P improves forecast for 2021 on Real GDP Growth in Armenia to 6.3%

ArmInfo. S&P Global Ratings has improved its forecast for 2021 for real GDP growth in Armenia to 6.3% (from the previously forecasted 2.5%). And for 2022-2023, S&P  forecasts for GDP growth in Armenia look a little more restrained -  by an average of 4.3% than the previously expected 4.5%.  This is  stated in the message of Ameriabank regarding the confirmation of the  credit rating of the bank at the level of <B + / B> and the  improvement of the forecast from "stable" to "positive".

According to S&P experts, stabilization of the macroeconomic and  financial environment in Armenia should reduce the risks existing in  the banking system of Armenia.

To note, the International Monetary Fund in September sharply  improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 to 6.5% from  the previous 1%, but warned: the risks of a decrease in GDP growth  rates in 2022 remain elevated, including due to geopolitical  tensions, a slowdown in external demand and increased volatility of  the global financial market. The new wave of Covid-19 infections  could also pose a threat, and in this context, the rapid increase in  the number of vaccinations is highly welcomed.

The World Bank in October improved its forecast for GDP growth in  Armenia for 2021 from the previous 3.4% to the updated 6.1%,  proposing, as the economy enters a phase of economic recovery,  gradually abandon government support measures and focus on creating a  competitive business environment which is a key aspect for  sustainable recovery, resilience to future crises and long-term  economic growth.  In early September 2021, the rating agency Moody's  predicted 4.5% real GDP growth in Armenia for 2021. And Fitch Ratings  at the end of September improved expectations for 2021 for Armenia's  GDP growth to 5.5% (from the previous 3.2%).

The Central Bank of Armenia, in its September forecast, improved  expectations for 2021 for GDP growth in the country to 5.4% (from the  previous 4.6%), against an actual 7.4% decline in 2020 and a  pre-covid 7.6% growth in 2019.