ArmInfo. S&P Global Ratings has improved its forecast for 2021 for real GDP growth in Armenia to 6.3% (from the previously forecasted 2.5%). And for 2022-2023, S&P forecasts for GDP growth in Armenia look a little more restrained - by an average of 4.3% than the previously expected 4.5%. This is stated in the message of Ameriabank regarding the confirmation of the credit rating of the bank at the level of <B + / B> and the improvement of the forecast from "stable" to "positive".
According to S&P experts, stabilization of the macroeconomic and financial environment in Armenia should reduce the risks existing in the banking system of Armenia.
To note, the International Monetary Fund in September sharply improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 to 6.5% from the previous 1%, but warned: the risks of a decrease in GDP growth rates in 2022 remain elevated, including due to geopolitical tensions, a slowdown in external demand and increased volatility of the global financial market. The new wave of Covid-19 infections could also pose a threat, and in this context, the rapid increase in the number of vaccinations is highly welcomed.
The World Bank in October improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 from the previous 3.4% to the updated 6.1%, proposing, as the economy enters a phase of economic recovery, gradually abandon government support measures and focus on creating a competitive business environment which is a key aspect for sustainable recovery, resilience to future crises and long-term economic growth. In early September 2021, the rating agency Moody's predicted 4.5% real GDP growth in Armenia for 2021. And Fitch Ratings at the end of September improved expectations for 2021 for Armenia's GDP growth to 5.5% (from the previous 3.2%).
The Central Bank of Armenia, in its September forecast, improved expectations for 2021 for GDP growth in the country to 5.4% (from the previous 4.6%), against an actual 7.4% decline in 2020 and a pre-covid 7.6% growth in 2019.
