ArmInfo. Over 9 months of 2021, Armenia's GDP increased by 11.1% per annum - up to 4.8 trillion drams or $ 9.3 billion, against a decline of 6% in the same period in 2020 and 9.7% growth in the Pre-COVID comparable period. This is evidenced by the data of the RA Statistical Committee.
And the quarterly dynamics of GDP was negative only in the Q1- by 34.8% (against a decline of 38.7% in the same period of 2020), after which in the Q2 there was a growth - by 17.5% (against 0.4% growth a year earlier), which accelerated in the Q3 to 25.2% (against 38.6% growth a year earlier).
The GDP deflator index for the reporting 9 months demonstrated higher growth quarterly than in the Pre-COVID year. Thus, the GDP deflator index in Q1 2021 to the same period a year ago was 104.7%, in Q2 - 109.5%, in Q3 - 106.2%, against 103.8%, 102.2%, and 100.4% - in QI-Q3 2019.
GDP per capita by quarter terms for 9 months of this year increased: from 433.479 thousand drams ($ 827) in Q1 to 531.816 thousand drams ($ 1023) in Q2 and to 640.822 thousand drams ($ 1307) in Q3, exceeding the Pre-COVID level of the Q1-Q3 2019 (420.2-617.6 thousand drams).
GDP growth for 9 months of 2021 was mainly provided by the construction sector - by 6.4%, the trade sector - by 6.4% and the service sector - by 5.4%, with a stagnating weak growth in the industrial sector - by 0.7%. At the same time, the energy complex and the agricultural sector showed a decline of 2.7% and 1.5%, respectively. A year earlier, for 9 months of 2020, only the energy complex, the industrial sector and the agricultural sector remained in growth - by 1.5%, 1% and 0.5%, respectively, while the construction sector, the service sector and the trade declined by 15.7%, 11.7% and 11.4% respectively.
At the same time, Armenia's foreign trade turnover reversed dynamics from 10.5% decline in 9 months of 2020 to 12.2% growth in 9 months of 2021. In its structure, the volume of exports changed from a 4.4% to 17.2% growth, and imports - from a 13.7% decline to 9.4% growth. As a comparison, we note that in the Pre-COVID period - for 9 months in 2019, the growth rates of these indicators looked much more modest: foreign trade turnover - 5.8%, exports - 7.9%, imports - 4.7%.
It should be noted that the World Bank improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 from the previous 3.4% to the updated 6.1%, suggesting, as the economy enters the phase of economic recovery, gradually abandon government support measures and focus on creating a competitive business environment that is a key aspect for sustainable recovery, resilience to future crises and long-term economic growth. According to the WB in the absence of renewed lockdowns or serious domestic or regional instability, the economy is expected to return to pre- COVID output levels by mid-2022.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September sharply improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 to 6.5% from the previous 1%, while warning: "The risks of a slowdown in GDP growth in 2022 remain high, including due to geopolitical tensions, slowing external demand and increased volatility in the global financial market. The new wave of COVID-19 infection could also pose a threat, and in this context, the rapid increase in the number of vaccinations is highly welcomed. " The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in November improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 from 4% to 5%, conditioned by a moderate update of the forecast that the key risks are still associated with a low level of vaccinations, the future development of the COVID-19 pandemic in general, the ongoing pandemic in the region, and geopolitical tensions. The Eurasian Development Bank, on the contrary, lowered the estimate of GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 by 0.4 p.p., predicting 4.5%, indicating that the main risks of the baseline scenario for the development of the Armenian economy remain the uncertainty of the situation with the pandemic and the fixation of inflation at elevated levels. In September-October, the S&P, Fitch and Moody's rating agencies improved their forecasts for real GDP growth in Armenia in 2021: S&P - from the previous 2.5% to the updated 6.3%, Fitch - from the previous 3.2% to the updated 5.5% while Moody's expects 4.5% growth.
According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, updated in September, GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 has once again improved - up to 5.4% from the previous 4.6%, against the actual decline in 2020 by 7.4%.
