ArmInfo. This January-October, net private money transfers to Armenia totaled $743mln, an a year-on-year accelerated growth of 29.8% to 42% (against the pre-COVID 20.1% decline in the corresponding period of 2019), due to net private money transfers from Russia and high activity of money transfers from the United States.
According to the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), the inflow of private money transfers to Armenia reversed the annual dynamics from a 5.9% decline last January-October to a 15.6% growth this January- October, greatly exceeding the pre-COVID 8.8% growth (in the corresponding period of 2019), and totaled $1.7bln. The transfer outflow showed a less apparent upward trend - a 1.3% growth against an 18.1% decline (against the pre-COVID 24% growth in the corresponding period of 2019), and reached $979.3mln. Russia`s share in money transfers to Armenia declined from 45.1% last January-October down to 41.3% this January-October (against 54.4% in January-October 2019), with the money transfer outflow showing a decline from 36.7% down to 33%, which, however, exceeded the pre-COVID 27% (January-October 2019). The USA`s share in the inflow of money transfers goes on growing - with a year-on-year growth of 24.1% to 27.2% (against 14.4% in January-October 2019), with the outflow showing a growth of 12.5% to 15.8%, which, however, was lower than the pre-COVID 21.3% in January-October 2019. Money transfers from Russia to Armenia reversed the annual dynamics from a 22% decline to 6% growth this January-October, with the outflow of transfers from Armenia showing a 9% decline against the 11.5% growth last year. This improved the annual dynamics of net money transfers from Russia to Armenia - from a 41.6% decline last January-October to a 22.5% growth this January-October, greatly exceeding the pre-COVID upward trend (13% in January-October 2019). As a result, transfers from Russia to Armenia totaled $711.9mln, with transfers from Armenia to Russia totaling $323.3mln, with a net inflow totaling $388.6mln. The inflow-outflow gap in the Armenia-Russia direction narrowed from 4-fold to 2-fold, whereas the gap widened from 2-fold to 3-fold in the Armenia-U.S. direction. The annual growth in private transfers from the U.S.A. to Armenia declined from 57.7% down to 30.5% this January-October and totaled $469.1mln, with the 51.8% decline in the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the U.S.A. followed by a 28.1% growth - up to $155.2mln. As a result, net private money transfers from the USA showed 12-fold slowdown in the annual rates, down to 31.7% and totaling $313.9mlm.
This October alone, transfers to Armenia showed a 5.7% decline due to a 7.7% decline in transfers from Russia, with a 1.1% growth in transfers from the USA. The outflow showed a slower upward trend this October as well, with accelerating rates up to 9.6%, due to a 16% growth in the outflow from Armenia to the USA and a decline in the growth of outflow to Russia down to 1.3%. As a result, net inflow of money transfers to Armenia showed a 22.5% decline this October, with a 13.8% decline in transfers from Russia and a 4.8% decline in transfers from the USA.
According to the CBA forecast for 2021 revised this September, 23-26% growth in net money transfers is expected against the previously forecast 15-18% (against the actual 14% growth in 2020). The CBA explains this improved forecast by higher economic activity in Russia and removal of COVID-19 restrictions, which resumed seasonal labor force migration and, as a result, growth in money transfers. The CBA forecasts a higher growth in money transfers from the USA, amid the more positive current development. In its September 2021 forecast, the CBA also indicates a higher GDP growth - 5.4% against the previously forecast 4.6%.