ArmInfo.Armenia's economic activity in January-October 2021 increased by 4.3% (against a decline of 6.7% a year earlier), while in the pre-COVID period 7.1% growth was recorded (in the same period in 2019). This is evidenced by the final data of the RA Statistical Committee.
In October of this year by October 2020 economic activity rose by 3.6% (versus a decline of 8.1% a year earlier), while in the pre-COVID period growth of 7.7% was recorded. At the same time, in October 2021 alone, economic activity decreased by 4.9% (as in the previous year) from the September 12.6% growth, which was also observed in the pre-COVID period - a 4.7% decline in October 2019 after the September 7.8% growth. According to statistics, the growth drivers of economic activity in January-October 2021 were the trade sector (by 7%), the service sector (by 6.4%) and the construction sector (by 6.1%). At the same time, the industrial sector showed insignificant growth - 1.1% alone. And the energy complex was in decline - by 3.1%. For the agricultural sector, data are published only on a quarterly terms. A year earlier, in January- October 2020, the only sectors that remained in growth were the industrial sector and the energy complex - 0.5% and 1.7% per annum, respectively. And the rest of the industries showed a serious decline: construction - by 13.3%, services - by 12.8%, trade - by 12.5%.
The industrial product price index increased in January-October 2021 compared to the same period in 2020 by 9.9%, in October 2021 compared to October 2020 - by 10.8%, and in October 2021 alone the growth slowed down to 0.2% from September 2.7%. A year earlier, in January-October 2020, compared to the same period of 2019, the industrial product price index increased by 2%, in October 2020, compared to October 2019, by 4.1%, and in October 2020 alone, it decreased by 0.7% after the September growth by 0.9%.
On a monthly terms (for October), a deterioration in dynamics was observed in the trade and service sectors - to a 3.8-1.5% decline from the September 1.6-3.4% growth. And the rest of the sectors showed growth: the industrial sector - with an acceleration of rates up to 9.6% from September 5.9%, the energy complex - with an output of positive 5.8% from the September 4.5% decline, the construction sector - with a slowdown to 5.5% from September 10.1%. A year earlier, in October 2020, only the industrial sector and the construction sector showed growth - 3.2% and 3%, respectively, and the rest of the sectors were in decline: trade - by 13.4%, the service sector - by 2.9%, and the energy complex - by 1.8%.
On a y-o-y terms (from October 2021 to October 2020), only in the energy complex a decline of 6.2% was observed (against 3% growth a year earlier), and the rest of the sectors showed growth. In particular, the services and trade sectors showed the greatest growth - by 14.6% and 12.7%, respectively, and the growth in the construction and industrial sectors looked much more modest - by 4.9% and 3.9%, respectively. A year earlier, in October 2020, by October 2019, in addition to the energy complex, the construction sector also maintained growth (by 0.3%), and the rest of the sectors were in decline: the service sector - by 21%, the trade sector - by 20.9%, the industrial sector - by 3%.
According to statistics in January-October 2021, the absolute leadership is held by the trading sector with a volume of 2.7 trillion drams ($ 5.3 billion). The second place was held by the industrial sector with a volume of 1.8 trillion ($ 3.6 billion), the third was held by the services sector - 1.5 trillion drams ($ 3 billion). And the fourth place, due to the lack of data on the agricultural sector, is occupied by the construction sector - 306.4 billion drams ($ 601.5 million). The volume of electricity generation in January- October 2021 was 6 .163.2 million kWh, of which 582.3 million kWh fell on October.
Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-October 2021 amounted to 3.3 trillion drams ($ 6.5 billion), which is 13.6% higher than a year ago. Moreover, the increase in export volumes turned out to be more significant - by 16.9% to 1.2 trillion drams ($ 2.4 billion) than imports - by 11.8% to 2.1 trillion drams ($ 4.1 billion). In October 2021, the growth of foreign trade turnover accelerated from 1.3% to 12.5%, due to the reversal of the dynamics of exports from a 16% decline to 16.7% growth, while the growth of imports slowed down from 12.2% to 10. 5%. And in October 2021 compared to October 2020, the growth of foreign trade turnover by 24.1% was provoked to a greater extent by the growth of imports by 29.4% than exports by 14.7%.
A year earlier, in January-October 2020, a decline in Armenia's foreign trade turnover by 11.4% was provoked by a decline in imports by 14.9% and exports by 4.4%, in October alone, foreign trade turnover decreased by 4.3% due to a decline in exports- by 12.9% with an increase in imports by 1.2%, and compared to October 2019, the decline in foreign trade turnover by 18.5% came from a decline in imports by 24.3% and exports by 5.4%.
The average calculated exchange rate of the dram was in October 2021. 479.25 AMD / $ 1, and in January- October 2021 - 508.24 AMD / $ 1.
To note, according to the new October forecast of the World Bank, the expectations for GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 have been improved from the previous 3.4% to the updated 6.1%. In particular, in the sectoral breakdown, the WB sees the service sector as growth drivers of the Armenian economy in 2021 - with a 7.4% growth (out of a 9.8% decline in 2020), the agricultural sector - with a 6.4% growth (from 4.1% decline in 2020) and the industrial sector - with access to 3.5th growth (out of 3% decline in 2020). But in the medium term (in 2023), the service sector and the agricultural sector will slow down growth rates to 5.9% and 3.9%, respectively, and the industrial sector, on the contrary, will accelerate growth to 5.1%. In terms of foreign trade turnover, the WB also predicts an exit from recession to growth in 2021. Thus, according to the WB estimates, exports will grow by 6.5% in 2021 (from a 32.4% decline in 2020), with an acceleration in 2022 to 10.8% and in 2023 to 12.5%, and imports - by 5.6% growth (from a 31.7% decline in 2020), with an acceleration in 2022 to 9.5% and a subsequent full recovery in 2023 of growth at the level of 12.8%.
