ArmInfo. Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-October 2021 exceeded $ 6.5 billion, with an improvement in y-o-y dynamics to 13.6% growth (from an 11.4% decline a year earlier), and with a tangible excess of the pre-COVID 6.5% growth rate.
Moreover, exports (16.9%) showed higher growth than imports (11.8%), with the trend emerging from the downward 4.4% and 14.9%, respectively, a year earlier, and with a significant excess of the pre-COVID upward rates of 7.2% and 6.2% respectively. According to the final data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the volume of exports reached $ 2.4 billion, while imports reached $ 4.1 billion.
In October 2021, the upward trend in foreign trade turnover accelerated from 1.3% to 12.5%, due to the change of the export trend from the 16% decline to 16.7% growth, while the import growth slowed down from 12.2% to 10. 5%. And in October 2021, compared with October 2020, the growth of foreign trade turnover by 24.1% was provoked to a greater extent by the growth of imports by 29.4%, rather than exports by 14.7%, which, in comparison with the rate of a year ago, indicates an improvement in the trend: from an 18.5% decline in foreign trade turnover, in particular, from a 24.3% decline in imports and a 5.4% decline in exports.
The negative foreign trade balance increased in January-October 2021 by 5.3% per annum (against a 25.5% decline in the same period of 2020), amounting to $ 1.7 billion. Moreover, the negative balance of Armenia's foreign trade with the EAEU countries amounted to $ 701.6 million, having decreased on a y-o-y terms by 4% (against 25.7% growth a year earlier), against the background of a sharp growth in exports by 25.5% with an increase in imports by 8.8%. And the negative balance of foreign trade of Armenia with the EU countries amounted to $ 189.3 million, decreasing by 43.6% on a y-o-y terms (against a 1.3% decline a year earlier), as a result as a result of which there was an improvement in the dynamics of exports and imports towards growth by 54.6% and 7%, respectively.
The main buyers of Armenian goods in January-October 2021 in exports are Russia - 28%, China - 13.6%, Switzerland - 10.8%, Bulgaria - 7.8% and the Netherlands - 6.2%. The main suppliers of imported products to Armenia in total imports are Russia - 32.9%, China - 15.7%, Iran - 8.2%, Italy - 4.6% and Germany - 4%. All export items in January-October showed growth, except for machines / apparatus, products made of stone, gypsum, cement, products from precious metals, oils of vegetable and animal origin, the dynamics of which is still in decline (4.8-39.1%). The leading item of Armenian export - mineral products - increased by 16.7% to $ 802.3 million, and the second in terms of export volume - ready-made food products - increased by 8.8% to $ 483.3 million. In the third place in export - base metals and products from them with an increase of 60.4% to $ 289.7 million, in the 4th place- precious metals and products from them with a decline of 17.3% to $ 256.5 million, and in the 5th place - products of plant origin with an increase in 41.3% to $ 155.8 million.
The leading import goods- mineral products, showed a more significant upward trend in January-October by an increase of 3% to $ 734 million, while the second-ranked import item - machinery / equipment / mechanisms was still in decline - by 0.8% to $ 692.8 million. Chemical products with a volume of $ 351.7 million held the 3rd pklace, with a 4.6% growth. The 4th place in terms of volumes is held by ready-made food products with an increase of 5.1% to $ 329.5 million. As before, the 5th place is occupied by base metals and products from them with an increase of 0.7% to $ 299.5 million, and the 6th place is held by textile products with an increase of 24.4% to $ 239.9 million. Export of chemical products increased by 14.1% per annum - up to $ 28.6 million.
To note, according to the forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia for 2021, updated in September, the growth of exports and imports will amount to 7.4% and 8.4%, respectively, with an acceleration in 2022 to 8.1% and 9.3%, in 2023 - up to 12% and 10.9%, respectively. The Central Bank, expecting a slight increase in the current account deficit, nevertheless kept the range predicted for 2021 - 1- 3% of GDP. In the medium term, according to the Central Bank's estimates, taking into account the recovery trends in the global and domestic economies and the relatively stable behavior of international prices, the current account deficit will gradually approach the balanced level of 4-6% of GDP.
And according to the forecast of the World Bank, updated in October, Armenia's foreign trade turnover will come out of recession to growth in 2021. So, in terms of exports, it is expected that in 2021, an output of 6.5% growth is expected (from a 32.4% decline in 2020), with an acceleration in 2022 to 10.8% and in 2023 to 12.5%, and imports - by 5.6% growth (from a 31.7% decline in 2020), with an acceleration in 2022 to 9.5% and a subsequent full recovery in 2023 of growth at the level of 12.8%. The current account deficit, according to the WB forecast, will decrease in 2021 to 3% of GDP (from 3.8% in 2020), and then increase in the medium term to 4.1% of GDP in 2022 and 5.3% of GDP in 2023.
