Monday, December 6 2021 18:31
Karine Melikyan

Growth of Armenia`s foreign trade turnover significantly exceeds  pre-COVID rates

Growth of Armenia`s foreign trade turnover significantly exceeds  pre-COVID rates

ArmInfo. Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-October 2021 exceeded $ 6.5 billion, with an improvement in y-o-y dynamics to 13.6% growth (from an 11.4%  decline a year earlier), and with a tangible excess of the pre-COVID  6.5% growth rate.

Moreover, exports (16.9%) showed higher growth than  imports (11.8%), with the trend emerging from the downward 4.4% and  14.9%, respectively, a year earlier, and with a significant excess of  the pre-COVID upward rates of 7.2% and 6.2% respectively. According  to the final data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of  Armenia, the volume of exports reached $ 2.4 billion, while imports  reached $ 4.1 billion.

In October 2021, the upward trend in foreign trade turnover  accelerated from 1.3% to 12.5%, due to the change of the export trend  from the 16% decline to 16.7% growth, while the import growth slowed  down from 12.2% to 10. 5%. And in October 2021, compared with October  2020, the growth of foreign trade turnover by 24.1% was provoked to a  greater extent by the growth of imports by 29.4%, rather than exports  by 14.7%, which, in comparison with the rate of a year ago, indicates  an improvement in the trend: from an 18.5% decline in foreign trade  turnover, in particular, from a 24.3% decline in imports and a 5.4%  decline in exports.

The negative foreign trade balance increased in January-October 2021  by 5.3% per annum (against a 25.5% decline in the same period of  2020), amounting to $ 1.7 billion. Moreover, the negative balance of  Armenia's foreign trade with the EAEU countries amounted to $ 701.6  million, having decreased on a y-o-y terms by 4% (against 25.7%  growth a year earlier), against the background of a sharp growth in  exports by 25.5% with an increase in imports by 8.8%. And the  negative balance of foreign trade of Armenia with the EU countries  amounted to $ 189.3 million, decreasing by 43.6% on a y-o-y terms  (against a 1.3% decline a year earlier), as a result as a result of  which there was an improvement in the dynamics of exports and imports  towards growth by 54.6% and 7%, respectively.

The main buyers of Armenian goods in January-October 2021 in exports  are Russia - 28%, China - 13.6%, Switzerland - 10.8%, Bulgaria - 7.8%  and the Netherlands - 6.2%. The main suppliers of imported products  to Armenia in total imports are Russia - 32.9%, China - 15.7%, Iran -  8.2%, Italy - 4.6% and Germany - 4%.   All export items in January-October showed growth, except for  machines / apparatus, products made of stone, gypsum, cement,  products from precious metals, oils of vegetable and animal origin,  the dynamics of which is still in decline (4.8-39.1%). The leading  item of Armenian export - mineral products - increased by 16.7% to $  802.3 million, and the second in terms of export volume - ready-made  food products - increased by 8.8% to $ 483.3 million. In the third  place in export - base metals and products from them with an increase  of 60.4% to $ 289.7 million, in the 4th place- precious metals and  products from them with a decline of 17.3% to $ 256.5 million, and in  the 5th place - products of plant origin with an increase in 41.3% to  $ 155.8 million.

The leading import goods- mineral products, showed a more significant  upward trend in January-October by an increase of 3% to $ 734  million, while the second-ranked import item - machinery / equipment  / mechanisms was still in decline - by 0.8% to $ 692.8 million.  Chemical products with a volume of $ 351.7 million held the 3rd  pklace, with a 4.6% growth. The 4th place in terms of volumes is held  by ready-made food products with an increase of 5.1% to $ 329.5  million. As before, the 5th place is occupied by base metals and  products from them with an increase of 0.7% to $ 299.5 million, and  the 6th place is held by textile products with an increase of 24.4%  to $ 239.9 million. Export of chemical products increased by 14.1%  per annum - up to $ 28.6 million.

To note, according to the forecast of the Central Bank of the  Republic of Armenia for 2021, updated in September, the growth of  exports and imports will amount to 7.4% and 8.4%, respectively, with  an acceleration in 2022 to 8.1% and 9.3%, in 2023 - up to 12% and  10.9%, respectively. The Central Bank, expecting a slight increase in  the current account deficit, nevertheless kept the range predicted  for 2021 - 1- 3% of GDP. In the medium term, according to the Central  Bank's estimates, taking into account the recovery trends in the  global and domestic economies and the relatively stable behavior of  international prices, the current account deficit will gradually  approach the balanced level of 4-6% of GDP.

And according to the forecast of the World Bank, updated in October,  Armenia's foreign trade turnover will come out of recession to growth  in 2021. So, in terms of exports, it is expected that in 2021, an  output of 6.5% growth is expected (from a 32.4% decline in 2020),  with an acceleration in 2022 to 10.8% and in 2023 to 12.5%, and  imports - by 5.6% growth (from a 31.7% decline in 2020), with an  acceleration in 2022 to 9.5% and a subsequent full recovery in 2023  of growth at the level of 12.8%. The current account deficit,  according to the WB forecast, will decrease in 2021 to 3% of GDP  (from 3.8% in 2020), and then increase in the medium term to 4.1% of  GDP in 2022 and 5.3% of GDP in 2023.


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