ArmInfo.. In January-October 2021, Armenia`s national debt was up by 15.6% (against 9% in the corresponding period last year), with the10.7% moderate increase in the external debt accompanied by a 31.1% increase in the domestic debt. A similar situation was observed last year - a 30.5% increase in the domestic debt, with a 3.2% increase in the foreign debt. As a result, by November 2021, Armenia`s national debt totaled $9.209bln (AMD 4,400bln), with the country`s foreign debt totaling $6.707bln and domestic debt, $2.502bln.
According to the Ra Statistical Committee, Armenia`s national debt showed an accelerating increase from 12.4% in October 2020 to 15.5% in October 2021, which was caused by an accelerated increase in the foreign debt from 6.5% to 12.3%, with the increase in the domestic debt slowing down from 34% to 24.7%. This October alone, Armenia`s national debt showed higher rates of increase - from 1% to 2%, with the domestic debt increasing from 3.2% to 5.4% and the foreign debt, from 0.2% to 0.6%. The government`s share in Armenia`s foreign debt structure was 93% ($6.2bln), with the rest 7% or $474.3bln being the share of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) - against 92% and 8% respectively last year. The government`s external debt went on increasing to reach 13.5%, with the CBA`s external debt slowing down its rates of increase from 7.2% to 0.6%. In January-October 2021, the government`s external debt increased by 11.3%, with the CBA`s external debt increasing by 3.1% whereas in January-October 2020 a 3.8% increase in the government`s external debt was accompanied by a 2.5% decrease in the CBA`s external debt.
In the domestic debt structure, the share of government bonds was 94.2% by November 2021 against 95.3% by November 2020 - AMD 1,100bln or $2.4bln, with the year-on-year increase in absolute figures slowing down from 35.7% to 23.3%. This January-October alone saw a 29% increase. The Armenian eurobonds rank second - $135.6bln or AMD 64.8bln, their share increasing from 4.7% to 5.4%, with the absolute value reversing from a 24.5% last January-October decrease to 44.6% increase this January- October. This January-October alone saw a 68.2% increase (against a 24.4% decrease in the corresponding period last year). In the domestic debt structure, securities for debts totaled $8.5mln this October (after an interval from August 2019 to September 2021), whereas they would total $9mln from 2017 to August 2019. At the end of last year, the national debtGDP ratio was 67.4% against 53.7% in 2019. The domestic debtGDP ratio increased from 42.4% in 2019 to 51.2% in 2020. According to the WB October forecast, Armenia`s national debt is expected to go down to 66.9% of the GDP this year, with a further downtrend to 65.8% of the GDP in 2022 and 63.4% of the GDP in 2023. The WB also improved its GDP growth forecast for Armenia - from 3.4% to 6.1%, proposing gradual refusal from government support to economy amid economic recovery, with a focus on competitive business environment, which is a key factor for steady recovery, resistance to crises and long-term economic growth. With no serious domestic or regional instability, Armenia`s economy will recover the pre-COVID production, the WB forecasts.
