ArmInfo.For 2022, the Armenian government has set a 7% economic growth target. Armenian Minister of Economy Vahan Kerobyan stated this in an interview on January 18. In this regard, he stressed that this position is unified, all actions and activities of the Ministry of Economy and the government of the country will be directed to its implementation.
Kerobyan stressed that the target indicator is somewhat lower than the forecasts of international financial organizations, in particular the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and international rating companies. However, referring to the study of the S&P rating company, the minister said that this report highly assessed the content of the government's program in terms of economic growth drivers. Moreover, the document states that the program will help increase the investment attractiveness of the country, which, according to Kerobyan, is very important.
As he further noted, the government is more optimistic about the future than the international financial institutions, which are very cautious in their assessments. "I talked to them about the methodology used. They take into account certain risks that affect their forecasts", said the head of the economic department.
At the same time, he indicated that these are the risks that the authorities must overcome. Referring to the pre-election promises of the ruling power, Kerobyan noted that over the next 5 years, the growth of the Armenian economy should be ensured in the range from 7% to 9%. "We must do more than usual to achieve such growth," the Minister said. He also emphasized that optimism in assessments always helps to achieve better results. "You can't achieve anything without faith," Kerobyan assured, possibly referring to his last year's unfulfilled estimates of double-digit GDP growth.
It should be noted, that the World Bank left unchanged the forecast for Armenia's GDP growth for 2021- 2022 - a slowdown from 6.1% to 4.8% with a subsequent acceleration in 2023 to 5.4%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in November worsened its forecast for Armenia's GDP growth for 2021 to 5.5% (from the previous 6.5%), expecting a slowdown in 2022 to 5.3% (instead of the previous 4.8%). And according to the December forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, the growth of Armenia's GDP in 2021 will be 4.2% (against the previously forecasted 5.4%), with an acceleration in 2022 to 5.3%. It should be noted that the state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2021 provides for a 3.2% GDP growth, and for 2022, the state budget provides for a 7% GDP growth. And this is after the fact that according to statistics, the actual decline in GDP in 2020 is 7.4%, and the pre-Covid GDP growth in 2019 is 7.6%.
