ArmInfo.The acceleration of public debt growth in Armenia, with a negative migration balance and weak population growth increased the specific debt burden per capita in 2021 to $3.1 thousand from $2.7 thousand in 2020 (against $2.5 thousand in 2019).
Of these, $2.2 thousand (against $2 thousand in 2020 and 2019) comes from external debt. In 2021, the population of the Republic of Armenia decreased slightly - from 2.963 million to 2.961 million. And the negative balance of migration increased in 2021 by 67.5% to 3.8 thousand, i.e. so the number of emigrants prevails over immigrants (22651 people left the country, and 18853 people arrived). As a comparison, we note that the negative migration balance in 2020 was in decline by 61.8%, after growing in 2019 by 1.8%.
The coverage of external debt by gold and foreign increased over 2021 from 43.2% to 48.4%, almost returning to the level of 2019 (49.3%), against the backdrop of external debt that kept growing while the dynamics of reserves improved from 8.2% decline by 23% growth. The share of public debt in Armenia's GDP, judging by the projected GDP growth (Central Bank - 4.2%, WB - 6.1%, IMF - 5.5%, and actual statistics have not yet been published), by the end of 2021 may exceed 68%, against actual 67.4% in 2020 and 53.5% in 2019 Meanwhile, the World Bank forecasted the share of public debt in Armenia's GDP at 66.9% for 2021, followed by an annual decline in 2022 to 65.8% and in 2023 to 63.4%.
According to the preliminary data of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Armenia, published by the Statistical Committee, the growth of Armenia's public debt by 15.8% to $ 9.226 billion (4.430 trillion drams) in 2021 is conditioned by the growth of both foreign and domestic debt. In particular, in 2021, external debt increased by 9.6% to $6.643 billion (3.189 trillion drams), while domestic debt increased by 35.3% to $2.583 billion (1.240 trillion drams). As a comparison, we note that in 2020 these indicators showed a more modest increase: total public debt - 8.8%, in particular, external debt - 4.6% and domestic - 24.6%. And two years earlier, in 2019, the growth of total public debt by 5.8% was accompanied by an increase in external debt by 4.6% and domestic debt by 10.7%.
The share of the government in the structure of foreign debt in 2021 increased from 92.4% to 93.1%, amounting to 6.185 billion dollars.And the share of the Central Bank, on the contrary, decreased from 7.6% to 6.9%, amounting to $457.7 million. In 2021, the external debt of the government accelerated growth to 10.5%, and the external debt of the Central Bank, having lingered in the recession, slowed down to 0.5%, which is similar to the multidirectional dynamics of 2020, but then the growth of government debt by 5.7% was accompanied by a decline in debt Central Bank by 6%. And two years earlier, in 2019, a 6.3% increase in government debt was accompanied by a decline in Central Bank debt by 11.1%.
Government bonds dominate in the structure of domestic public debt - in 2021, the share decreased from 95.8% to 93.3% ($2.411 billion or 1.158 trillion drams), with a y-o-y increase in absolute value by 31.9%. This is followed by Armenian Eurobonds - $160.7 million or 77.1 billion drams, the share of which increased from 4.2% to 6.2% in 2021, with a 2-fold y-o-y sharp increase in absolute value. And the portfolio of internal guarantees, which was zeroed in August 2019, re-appeared in the structure of internal debt in October 2021, reaching $11.152 million or 0.5% by the end of the reporting year (with an increase in the absolute for the fourth quarter by 30.8%). As a comparison, we note that in 2020, the growth in the volume of government bonds in domestic debt accelerated from 16.9% to 29.9%, while the decline in the volume of Eurobonds accelerated from 29.7% to 35%.
At the end of 2020, the total state debt of Armenia amounted to 4.164 trillion drams or $7.968 billion, in the structure of which the external debt is 3.167 trillion drams or $6.059 billion, and domestic - 997.6 billion drams or $1.909 billion. In 2020, the population of the Republic of Armenia decreased by 311 thousand people (with 3.274 million people in 2011).
