ArmInfo. Last year saw an accelerated growth in private transfers to Armenia from 14% in 2020 up to 54% (against a 15% decline in 2019). Private transfers to Armenia totaled $883.3mln.
According to the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) the net private transfers from the USA showed a 32% growth against a 50-fold growth, net private transfers from Russia, a 27.1% growth against a 42.1% decline (against an 82% decline in net private transfers from the USA and a 9% growth in net private transfers from Russia in 2019). As a result, in 2021, the net private transfers from Russia totaled $463.8mln and from the USA, $391.3mln.
Specifically, the transfers from Russia showed a 5% growth in 2021 against a 22% in 2020 and against the stagnant 0.6% growth in 2019, totaling $865.6mln. On the other hand, transfers to Russia showed a 12.6% decline against an 8% growth (against a 9.7% decline in 2019) and totaled $401.8mln. Transfers from the USA showed a 26.5% growth against a 63.3% growth and totaled $580.3mln. Transfers from Armenia to the USA showed a 16.5% growth against a 41% decline and totaled $189.05mln, similarly to the pre- pandemic 2019, when the outflow exceeded the inflow - 44% against 25.4%.
The last five years saw narrowing spread between the inflow and outflow of transfers in the Armenia- Russia direction from 3-fold to 2-fold, with the spread in the Armenia-USA direction widening from 2-fold to 3-fold. In 2004-2021, the widest spread between the inflow and outflow of transfers in the Armenia-USA direction was recorded last year, with the widest spread between the inflow and outflow of transfers in the Armenia-Russia direction recorded in 2008 (with the inflow exceeding the outflow 9-fold), and in 2011 and 2013 (with the inflow exceeding the outflow 7-fold).
The inflow of private transfers to Armenia showed a 14.5% growth last year against a 6% decline in 2020 (9.7% growth in 2019), and exceeded $2.109bln. Transfers from Armenia retained a downward trend, with a decelerating year-on-year growth of 3.3% against 13% (against 22.4% growth in 2019) and totaled $1.226bln in 2021.
In 2021, Russia's share in the inflow decreased from 45% to 41% in 2020 (against 54% in 2019), with its share in the outflow decreasing from 36% to 33% (29% in 2019). The USA's share in the inflow of transfers went on growing up to 28% in 2021 against 25% in 2020 (against 4% in 2019), with its share in the outflow growing from 13% to 15% (19% in 2019).
According to the CBA forecast revised late last December, the net transfers to Armenia were to show a more moderate growth - 23% to 26% (against the actual 54%). According to the CBA forecast, their share in the GDP is expected to decline during the next three years - from 8.2% in 2022 down to 6.5% in 2024 - after a growth up to 9.9% in 2021 and 8.2% in 2020.
The CBA forecasts a decline in transfers from the USA during 2022 due to gradual removal of COVID restrictions.
The current account deficit/GDP ratio is expected to increase up to 3.4% in 2022 (after a decrease down to 1.8% in 2021 from 3.8% in 2020), with the following annual increase up to 4.7% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024. The CBA links the medium-term gradually increasing share of the current account deficit with the forecast global economic growth and recovering domestic demand, stable international prices and recovering tourist industry.
