ArmInfo.In its updated f outlook for 2022, the Central Bank of Armenia forecasts a 20% decrease in the net inflow of remittances in dollar terms(against 54% growth in 2021), due to the foreseeable economic downturn in Russia (by 6%) and a tangible decrease in the dollar income of seasonal workers.
According to the new forecasts of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, the ratio of transfers of individuals to GDP will decrease from 8.9% to 6.7% in 2022, continuing to decline and subsequently to 4.8% in 2024. The Central Bank reiterated in its new forecast report that remittances from the United States will slow down their growth.
At a recent press conference of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, answering a question from ArmInfo, Head of the Monetary Policy Department Hayk Avetisyan drew attention to the factor of transfers from the Russian Federation, noting: "If a few years ago the share of transfers from the Russian Federation accounted for 80%, then by 2022 this indicator has decreased almost 2-fold - up to 40%. In this context, I would note that it is extremely important not to overestimate the economic effects, or not to treat them as before." At the same time, he added that due to the current situation (there is a view of the total uncertainty amid the Russian-Ukrainian military-political conflict and large-scale sanctions applied by the West against Russia, ed. note), in terms of the impact of transfers on the economy, there is already a significant weakening of the economic effect.
According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, in 2021, the growth of the net inflow of private transfers to Armenia accelerated to 54% from 14% in 2020, due to the recovery of the dynamics of incomes from the Russian Federation from the 42.1% decline to 27.1% growth, with a significant slowdown in their growth from the US from 50-fold to 32%. As a result, the total net inflow of private transfers in 2021 amounted to $883.3 million, in particular, from the Russian Federation - $463.8 million, and from the USA - $391.3 million.
In terms of inflows and outflows, the dynamics of the first ones in 2021 has increased, while the second ones lingered in decline. Thus, the inflow of private transfers to Armenia changed the y-o-y dynamics from a 6% decline to a 14.5% increase - up to $2.109 billion, and the downtrend of the outflow of transfers from Armenia slowed down from 13% to 3.3%, amounting to $1.226 billion This was the result of a 5% increase in remittance inflows from Russia, while outflows to Russia fell by 12.6%, while US inflows slowed to 26.5%, while US inflows recovered from a decline to 16.5%. Russia's share in the inflow in 2021 decreased from 45% to 41% (against 54% in 2019), while also decreasing in the outflow - from 36% to 33% (against 29% in 2019). And the share of the United States in the inflow, on the contrary, continues to increase - from 25% to 28% (against 14% in 2019), while increasing in the outflow - from 13% to 15% (against 19% in 2019).
