ArmInfo. According to today's calculations, if it is not possible to distribute economic growth among the population, in particular, to increase the incomes of vulnerable segments of the population, then the poverty rate in Armenia will increase from 27% to 42%. Minister of Economy of Armenia Vahan Kerobyan stated this in an interview to the Public Television of Armenia.
In this regard, he explained that, despite the positive results recorded over the past 2 months, the future is full of risks, which is associated with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In particular, according to the minister, this conflict creates problems for agriculture, food security, which will affect the level of inflation.
<Thus, the cost of the food basket will rise. And, consequently, another 15% of the population will be below the poverty line>, Kerobyan said.
The head of the department stressed that in this sense, the government faces serious work, the meaning of which is not to aggravate the situation of a vulnerable group of the population in the current reality. At the same time, Kerobyan sees the decision not in the distribution of social benefits, but in increasing budget revenues, which will be directed to the implementation of various social programs that will yield results, both in the long and short term.
The Central Bank of Armenia worsened its forecast for GDP growth for 2022 to 1.6% from the previous 5.3% (against the actual 5.7% growth in 2021), expecting a decline in exports and imports by 1.8-0 .1% and inflation of 6.6%. The IMF revised the forecast for the Armenian economy downward to 1.5% in 2022. The Fitch rating agency also downgraded the forecast for Armenia's GDP growth to 1.3%, the World Bank has not yet updated its forecast, and according to January, 4.8% GDP growth in Armenia is expected.
