ArmInfo. Due to a significant increase in transfers from Russia, the net inflow of private transfers to Armenia, sharply increased in January-February 2022 by 53% per annum (from 4.4% growth in the same period in 2021), reaching $96.6 million.
Moreover, the net inflow of private transfers from Russia reversed the y-o-y dynamics from a 32% decline to a 50.3% growth, reaching $63.6 million, while the net inflow of transfers from the United States slowed down growth significantly from 86% to 12%, amounting to $46.8 million. This is evidenced by the data of the Central Bank of Armenia.
This was the result of the increase in the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia - by 35.1% (from 19.1% decline a year earlier), which was more moderately observed in the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the Russian Federation - with a change from a decrease of 3.5% up to 22% growth. And the volumes of inflow and outflow of transfers in the direction of the USA kept growing, but slowed down significantly from 83-79% to 14-16%. As a result, in January-February 2022, the volume of inflow of transfers from Russia amounted to $123.2 million, outflow to the Russian Federation - $59.5 million, and the volume of inflow and outflow of transfers in the direction of the United States amounted to $82 million and $35.2 million, respectively.
In total, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia accelerated the y-o-y growth from 4.4% to 25.1%, while the growth of the outflow of transfers accelerated from 4.4% to 15.6%, the volume of which in January-February 2022 amounted to $308.02 million and $211.5 million respectively. The share of Russia in the inflow in y-o-y terms, increased from 37% to 40% (against 48% in the same period of 2019 and 2020), increasing in the outflow as well - from 27% to 28% (against 29% in 2020 and 48% in 2019). And the share of the United States in the inflow, on the contrary, decreased in y-o-y terms from 29% to 27% (versus 17% in 2020 and 14% in 2019), while remaining at the level of 17% in the outflow (vs. 16% in 2019).
The net inflow of transfers to Armenia on a monthly terms, in February 2022 alone, increased by 39%, as a result of an almost equally noticeable increase in inflow and outflow by 41% and 42%, respectively. In particular, a 2-fold sharp ingrease in the inflow of transfers from Russia and an increase in outflow to the Russian Federation by 58% increased the net inflow from there 2.6-fold, while in the direction of the United States, an outflow that sharply increased by 66% with a stagnant 0.7% growth in inflow deepened the decline in net inflow from there to 31%.
It should be noted that the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia in its forecast for 2022, updated in March, foreshadows a decline in the net inflow of private transfers by 20%. In the same forecast report, the Central Bank worsened its expectations for GDP growth in 2022 to 1.6% from the previously announced 5.3%. The Central Bank determines its forecast for a decline in the inflow of transfers by the expected economic downturn in Russia (by 6%) and a significant decrease in the dollar income of seasonal workers. According to new forecasts of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, the ratio of transfers of individuals to GDP will decrease from 8.9% to 6.7% in 2022, continuing to decline and subsequently to 4.8% in 2024. In its forecast report, the Central Bank reiterated that remittances from the United States will slow down growth.
