ArmInfo.Initially, we envisaged 7% GDP growth for 2022 in the budget of Armenia. But we had a growth of 12% in the first two months. We started this year very briskly, and we were aiming for much more than the 7% budgeted, and there were and are prerequisites for this. Armenian Economy Minister Kagan Kerobyan stated this in an interview with RBC.
Commenting on the reduction of the forecast for the growth of the Armenian GDP by the Moody's Investors Service rating agency from 5 to 1.8% this year, Kerbonyan said that in the face of many uncertainties, rating agencies are starting to sharply reduce forecasts. "And I know that international financial institutions do this too. When we discuss the methodology with them, how they do it, they usually say: " Maybe there will be such a scenario." That is, they always take the most negative options in case of uncertainties and put this into a new forecast," said the head of the economic department.
"In fact, we do not change our goals. And we aim to achieve this 7% growth. It should also be taken into account that now, in the conditions of strong growth of food prices, the cost of the consumer basket is increasing, and large sectors of the population may be on the verge of poverty.
According to forecasts, poverty in Armenia may increase from the current 27% to 42%. Of course, there is economic growth, but it is very difficult to ensure that economic growth is directed to the pockets of the vulnerable segments of the population. Typically, some people benefit from economic growth and others lose from inflation. And the task of the government is to make sure that economic growth changes the the lives of the poorest sections of society," the minister stressed.
It should be noted that the Central Bank of Armenia forecasts 1.6% growth of the country's economy in 2022, the IMF forecasts - 1.5%, the World Bank - 1.2%, S&P Rating Agency - 1/3%.
