ArmInfo.In Armenia, economic activity in January-April 2022 increased by 9.4% per annum, against the backdrop of growth in exports and imports by 25.2% and 39.1%, respectively, which was observed at a relatively restrained pace in the same period a year ago - the growth of economic activity by 2.6% was accompanied by the growth of exports and imports by 16.7% and 2.2%, respectively.
This is evidenced by the preliminary data of the RA Statistical Committee, in which there are no data from the agricultural sector, since they are published in the statistical report only quarterly.
In the industrial context, growth in January-April 2022 was demonstrated by all areas, moreover, the service sector and the energy complex are more noticeable, while a year earlier it was the service sector that was in decline. It is noteworthy that the current growth in economic activity turned out to be higher than the rates of the pre-Covid similar period, (7% ), with a downward trend in exports and imports, it was in decline - by 8.6% and 1.9%, respectively, and of the sectors, the service sector showed the highest growth (17%) and the only decline was in the energy sector (9.2%).
An improvement in the y-o-y dynamics (January-April 2022 versus January-April 2021) was observed in the service sector - with an exit from a 2.9% decline to a 23.5% increase. Growth acceleration was recorded in the trade sector from 4.8% to 7.8%, in the industrial sector - from 0.9% to 2.6%, and in the energy complex - from 3.1% to 14.1%, and in the construction sector on the contrary, the growth rate slowed down from 20.3% to 9%.
In April 2022 versus April 2021, economic activity increased by 8.8% (against 23.2% growth in April 2021 versus April 2020). Growth was observed in all sectors: the service sector - 27.1%, construction - 15.6%, trade - 8.6%, energy complex - 5.8%, and the industrial sector - 1.2%. A year earlier, in April 2021 by April 2020, of the listed areas, the service sector showed relatively restrained growth (15.4%), while the rest of the sectors showed significantly higher growth rates than the current ones: construction - 87.7%, trade - 47.8 %, the industrial sector - 16.9%, and the energy complex - 9%, while it should be taken into account that the exit to such rates was made from the recession in which the sectors found themselves in 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic with the introduction of a state of emergency and restrictive measures. In the pre-covid similar period (April 2019 to April 2018), these areas also showed growth: the service sector - 16.2%, the industrial sector - 13.2%, trade - 9%, the energy complex - 8.9%, construction - 1.8%.
And in April 2022 alone, economic activity increased by 5.3%, against an increase of 3.2% in April 2021. On a monthly terms, almost all sectors showed growth: the industrial sector - 11.7%, construction - 8.5%, services - 2.1%, trade - 1.7%. Only the energy complex lingered in the decline, with an acceleration of rates up to 13.9%. As a comparison, we note that a year earlier, in April 2021, the industrial sector was in growth - 2.1%, the service sector - 1.2%, the construction sector - 1.1%, and the trade sector lingered in the decline - with a noticeable slowdown to 0.2%, and the energy complex - with an acceleration of up to 13%. Prior to this, in the pre-Covid 2019, in April, only the service sector showed growth, but stagnation low - only 0.5%, while other industries were in decline: construction - 10.8%, energy complex - 3.3%, industrial sector - 3%, trade - 1.8%.
The price index of industrial products increased in January-April 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 by 10.8%, in April 2022 compared to April 2021 - by 9.4%, and in April 2022 alone - a decline of 2.4%. A year earlier, a similar trend was observed in the industrial products price index: in January-April 2021 compared to the same period in 2020 - an increase of 8.1%, in April 2021 against April 2020 - an increase of 11%, and - an increase of 0.4% in April 2021 alone. In pre-Covid 2019, the dynamics of the industrial products price index was similar to the current one, but looked very modest: in January-April 2019 compared to the same period in 2018 - an increase of 0.4%, in April 2019 compared to April 2018 - an increase of 0.6 %, and - a decline of 3.5% in April 2019 alone.
The consumer price index in January-April 2022 compared to the same period in 2020 increased by 7.4%, in April 2022 compared to April 2021 - by 8.4%, and by 2.3% in April 2022 alone, which is higher than inflation similar periods a year ago: 5.4% per annum (in January-April), 6.2% per annum (in April) and 1.3% (per month). In pre-Covid 2019, in January-April, y-o-y inflation was recorded at 1.7%, in April y-o- y inflation at 2.2%, and 0.1% deflation in April alone. According to statistical data in January-April 2022, in absolute terms, the leadership is held by the trading sector with a volume of 1.1 trillion drams ($2.3 billion). The industrial sector is in second place - 754.7 billion ($1.6 billion), the service sector is in third place - 698.2 billion drams ($1.4 billion), and due to the lack of data on the agricultural sector, the construction sector is in fourth place, - 81.3 billion drams ($168.4 million). The volume of electricity generation in January-April 2022 amounted to 3142.4 million kWh, of which 677.1 million kWh in April alone.
At the same time, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia in January-April 2022 accelerated growth to 33.8%, amounting to 1.4 trillion drams ($2.9 billion). In its structure, growth acceleration was observed both in export - up to 25.2%, and in import - up to 39.1%, the absolute value of which reached 494 billion drams ($1.03 billion) and 907.7 billion drams ($1.9 billion) respectively. In April 2022 alone, foreign trade turnover increased by 18.9%, due to an increase in exports by 27.3% and imports by 14.6%, and compared to April 2021, the growth in foreign trade turnover by 22.5% came from an increase in exports by 19.8% and imports by 24.1%. A year earlier, in January-April 2021, Armenia's foreign trade turnover increased by 7.2% per annum, in particular, exports - by 16.7% and imports - by 2.2%, and in April 2021 alone the growth of foreign trade turnover by 12.9% came from almost the same growth in exports and imports - by 11.9% and 13.6%, respectively, and compared to April 2020, the growth of these indicators turned out to be impressive - 47.5%, 64.3% and 39.1%, respectively.
It should be noted that according to the April WB forecast for 2022, Armenia's GDP growth will slow down to 1.2%, with a decline in exports and imports by 8.5-12%. According to the May forecast of the IMF for 2022, Armenia's GDP growth will slow down to 1.5%, with a slowdown in export and import growth to 9.7-10.8%. According to the March forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, GDP growth in 2022 will slow down to 1.6%, with a decline in exports and imports by 1.8-0.1%. According to actual statistics, Armenia's GDP in 2021 reached a 5.7% growth from a 7.4% decline in 2020, with a reversal in the dynamics of exports and imports from a 3.9-17.7% decline in 2020 to 19.1-16.9% growth in 2021 (The average settlement rate of the dram in April 2022 was 470.99 AMD/$1, and in January-April - 482.55 AMD/$1).
