Wednesday, May 25 2022 15:09

ArmInfo.In Armenia, economic activity in January-April 2022 increased by 9.4% per annum, against the backdrop of growth in exports and imports by 25.2% and 39.1%,  respectively, which was observed at a relatively restrained pace in  the same period a year ago - the growth of economic activity by 2.6%  was accompanied by the growth of exports and imports by 16.7% and  2.2%, respectively.

This is evidenced by the preliminary data of the  RA Statistical Committee, in which there are no data from the  agricultural sector, since they are published in the statistical  report only quarterly.

In the industrial context, growth in January-April 2022 was  demonstrated by all areas, moreover, the service sector and the  energy complex are more noticeable, while a year earlier it was the  service sector that was in decline. It is noteworthy that the current  growth in economic activity turned out to be higher than the rates of  the pre-Covid similar period, (7% ), with a downward trend in exports  and imports, it was in decline - by 8.6% and 1.9%, respectively, and  of the sectors, the service sector showed the highest growth (17%)  and the only decline was in the energy sector (9.2%).

An improvement in the y-o-y dynamics (January-April 2022 versus  January-April 2021) was observed in the service sector - with an exit  from a 2.9% decline to a 23.5% increase. Growth acceleration was  recorded in the trade sector from 4.8% to 7.8%, in the industrial  sector - from 0.9% to 2.6%, and in the energy complex - from 3.1% to  14.1%, and in the construction sector on the contrary, the growth  rate slowed down from 20.3% to 9%.

In April 2022 versus April 2021, economic activity increased by 8.8%  (against 23.2% growth in April 2021 versus April 2020). Growth was  observed in all sectors: the service sector - 27.1%, construction -  15.6%, trade - 8.6%, energy complex - 5.8%, and the industrial sector  - 1.2%. A year earlier, in April 2021 by April 2020, of the listed  areas, the service sector showed relatively restrained growth  (15.4%), while the rest of the sectors showed significantly higher  growth rates than the current ones: construction - 87.7%, trade -  47.8 %, the industrial sector - 16.9%, and the energy complex - 9%,  while it should be taken into account that the exit to such rates was  made from the recession in which the sectors found themselves in 2020  during the coronavirus pandemic with the introduction of a state of  emergency and restrictive measures. In the pre-covid similar period  (April 2019 to April 2018), these areas also showed growth: the  service sector - 16.2%, the industrial sector - 13.2%, trade - 9%,  the energy complex - 8.9%, construction - 1.8%.

And  in April 2022 alone, economic activity increased by 5.3%,  against an increase of 3.2% in April 2021.  On a monthly terms,  almost all sectors showed growth: the industrial sector - 11.7%,  construction - 8.5%, services - 2.1%, trade - 1.7%. Only the energy  complex lingered in the decline, with an acceleration of rates up to  13.9%. As a comparison, we note that a year earlier, in April 2021,  the industrial sector was in growth - 2.1%, the service sector -  1.2%, the construction sector - 1.1%, and the trade sector lingered  in the decline - with a noticeable slowdown to 0.2%, and the energy  complex - with an acceleration of up to 13%. Prior to this, in the  pre-Covid 2019, in April, only the service sector showed growth, but  stagnation low - only 0.5%, while other industries were in decline:  construction - 10.8%, energy complex - 3.3%, industrial sector - 3%,  trade - 1.8%.

The price index of industrial products increased in January-April  2022 compared to the same period in 2021 by 10.8%, in April 2022  compared to April 2021 - by 9.4%, and in April 2022 alone - a decline  of 2.4%. A year earlier, a similar trend was observed in the  industrial products price index: in January-April 2021 compared to  the same period in 2020 - an increase of 8.1%, in April 2021 against  April 2020 - an increase of 11%, and - an increase of 0.4% in April  2021 alone. In pre-Covid 2019, the dynamics of the industrial  products price index was similar to the current one, but looked very  modest: in January-April 2019 compared to the same period in 2018 -  an increase of 0.4%, in April 2019 compared to April 2018 - an  increase of 0.6 %, and - a decline of 3.5% in April 2019 alone.

The consumer price index in January-April 2022 compared to the same  period in 2020 increased by 7.4%, in April 2022 compared to April  2021 - by 8.4%, and   by 2.3% in April 2022 alone, which is higher  than inflation similar periods a year ago: 5.4% per annum (in  January-April), 6.2% per annum (in April) and 1.3% (per month). In  pre-Covid 2019, in January-April, y-o-y inflation was recorded at  1.7%, in April  y-o- y inflation at 2.2%, and   0.1% deflation in  April alone.  According to statistical data in January-April 2022, in  absolute terms, the leadership is held by the trading sector with a  volume of 1.1 trillion drams ($2.3 billion). The industrial sector is  in second place - 754.7 billion ($1.6 billion), the service sector is  in third place - 698.2 billion drams ($1.4 billion), and due to the  lack of data on the agricultural sector, the construction sector is  in fourth place,  - 81.3 billion drams ($168.4 million). The volume  of electricity generation in January-April 2022 amounted to 3142.4  million kWh, of which 677.1 million kWh in April alone.

At the same time, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia in  January-April 2022 accelerated growth to 33.8%, amounting to 1.4  trillion drams ($2.9 billion). In its structure, growth acceleration  was observed both in export - up to 25.2%, and in import - up to  39.1%, the absolute value of which reached 494 billion drams ($1.03  billion) and 907.7 billion drams ($1.9 billion) respectively. In  April 2022 alone, foreign trade turnover increased by 18.9%, due to  an increase in exports by 27.3% and imports by 14.6%, and compared to  April 2021, the growth in foreign trade turnover by 22.5% came from  an increase in exports by 19.8% and imports by 24.1%. A year earlier,  in January-April 2021, Armenia's foreign trade turnover increased by  7.2% per annum, in particular, exports - by 16.7% and imports - by  2.2%, and in April 2021 alone the growth of foreign trade turnover by  12.9% came from almost the same growth in exports and imports - by  11.9% and 13.6%, respectively, and compared to April 2020, the growth  of these indicators turned out to be impressive - 47.5%, 64.3% and  39.1%, respectively.

It should be noted that according to the April WB forecast for 2022,  Armenia's GDP growth will slow down to 1.2%, with a decline in  exports and imports by 8.5-12%. According to the May forecast of the  IMF for 2022, Armenia's GDP growth will slow down to 1.5%, with a  slowdown in export and import growth to 9.7-10.8%. According to the  March forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, GDP  growth in 2022 will slow down to 1.6%, with a decline in exports and  imports by 1.8-0.1%. According to actual statistics, Armenia's GDP in  2021 reached a 5.7% growth from a 7.4% decline in 2020, with a  reversal in the dynamics of exports and imports from a 3.9-17.7%  decline in 2020 to 19.1-16.9% growth in 2021 (The average settlement  rate of the dram in April 2022 was 470.99 AMD/$1, and in  January-April - 482.55 AMD/$1).