ArmInfo. The net inflow of transfers from individuals accelerated the y-o-y growth in January-April 2022, jumping to 94% from 80% a year earlier, exceeding $394.3 million, which was greatly facilitated by the multiple increase in remittances from Russia, while a year ago, in the same period, the driving force of growth was remittances from the United States. This is evidenced by the data of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia.
Thus, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia from Russia in January-April 2022 sharply accelerated y-o-y growth from 9.4% to 2.2-fold, which was also observed at a more restrained pace in the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the Russian Federation- from 13% to 37%. This spurred the upward trend in net inflow of transfers from Russia up to 3.2-fold in January-April 2022 from 5.2% in January- April 2021. As a result, the volume of inflow of transfers from Russia in January-April 2022 amounted to $471.6 million, and the outflow to the Russian Federation - $165.5 million, which formed a net inflow in this direction at the level of $306.1 million. At the same time, the growth in the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia from the United States in January-April 2022 significantly slowed down from 2-fold to 20%, amounting to $199.1 million, along with which the growth of the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the United States accelerated from 24 to 47%, reaching $83.9 million.
As a result, the net inflow of transfers from individuals from the United States sharply slowed down growth from 3-fold to 5.8%, amounting to $115.2 million. In total, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia accelerated the y-o-y growth in January-April 2022 to 60.2% from 29.1% in January-April 2021, amounting to $918.6 million. A similar acceleration of the uptrend was observed in the outflow of transfers - from 11.8% to 41.6%, with a volume of $524.2 million. As a result, the y-o-y uptrend of the net inflow of transfers to Armenia also accelerated. The share of Russia in the inflow in January-April 2022 increased to 51.3% from 37.9% in January-April 2021 (against 51% in January-April 2019), and began to decrease in the outflow - from 32.7% to 31.6 % (against 38.7% in January-April 2019). And the share of the United States in the inflow, on the contrary, decreased year-on-year from 28.9% to 21.7% (against 15.3% in January-April 2019), while increasing in the outflow from 15.4% to 16% (against 18.8% in January-April 2019).
It should be noted that the March forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia foreshadowed a decline in the net inflow of remittances in dollar terms by 20% for 2022 (against 54% growth in 2021). The Central Bank conditioned its forecast on the foreseeable economic downturn in Russia and a tangible decrease in the dollar income of seasonal workers. The Central Bank also worsened its forecast for GDP growth for 2022 from the previous 5.3% to an updated 1.6% (against 5.7% growth in 2021). According to the March forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, the ratio of transfers of individuals to GDPwill decrease in 2022 from 8.9% to 6.7%, continuing to decline further to 4.8% in 2024.The Central Bank in this forecast report reiterated that remittances from the United States will slow down growth.
