ArmInfo. Head of the Central Bank of Armenia, Martin Galstyan, considers it wrong to condition all economic phenomena on the behavior of the exchange rate. He stated this on June 15, speaking from the rostrum of the National Assembly.
He explained that it is necessary to specify the available approaches, the causal relationship - how much it is provoked by the influx of international visitors and the behavior of aggregate demand. "There are nuances of political decisions here. First of all, I would like to note that the politicians of the Central Bank and the Government should continue to be guided by the existing common agenda. For the information of those who call on the Central Bank to artificially devalue the Armenian dram, I want to note that they need to be aware that the result of this will be high inflation, due to which all citizens, even if they do not have enough money, will pay the so-called inflation tax, i.e. subsidize export-oriented enterprises. I think it's correct to make a detailed analysis of the current situation, which will allow avoiding artificial devaluation of the national currency, , and at the expense of increased tax collections due to inflation, the state will need to promote export -oriented enterprises with the potential for dynamic development"," the head of the Central Bank emphasized, while noting that in the case of revaluation of the national currency, the Public Services Regulatory Commission should discuss the correspondence of tariffs to the exchange rate.
Regarding the ratio of the dram/Russian ruble currency pair, he stated that the real state of the Armenian dram has been devalued. "And if we also take into account that inflation in Russia is higher, then those exporters who bring goods to the Russian Federation and fix contracts in Russian rubles exclusively benefit in the created situation," M. Galstyan noted, advising those referring to the value of exports to consider it in a complex with export directions.
Aaccording to the RA Statistical Committee, in January-April 2022, exports from Armenia to Russia exceeded $279.9 million, with an acceleration of y-o-y growth to 26.4% (from 20.9% in the same period of 2021). And import from Russia to Armenia reversed the y-o-y dynamics from a 5.9% decline to a 42.1% increase, reaching $623.4 million. Russia's share in exports in Armenia's foreign trade, increased year-on-year from 27% to 27.3%, and in imports - from 32.4% to 33.1%. Russia holds the lead both in terms of foreign trade turnover in general and in terms of exports and imports in particular among the countries of Armenia's trading partners. According to customs data, agricultural goods, alcoholic products, textiles and other goods are mainly exported to Russia from Armenia.
It should be noted that in the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia, the dram against the Russian ruble devalued this year from February 24 to June 15 inclusive by 20% - to 7.2 AMD / 1 RUB on average. At the same time, during this period, the dram revalued both against the US dollar - by 9% to 439 AMD/$1, and against the euro - by 16% to 458.5 AMD/1EUR. Moreover, on June 14, on the day of the revision of the refinancing rate by the Central Bank, the ratio of the dram against the dollar and the euro changed from revaluation to devaluation, but already on June 15, the devaluation rates against these currencies narrowed significantly. It is appropriate to note that high volatility in the foreign exchange market since March 2022 was due to comprehensive, unprecedented, large-scale US and European sanctions against Russia against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian military-political conflict.
